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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (53800)	3/26/2003 1:02:27 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>> I also don't think there was broad based support for Gemstar, although a few seemed to be sucked in. Ummm, I seem to remember it being a widely owned issue, Thomas, which is why it was placed on the G&K Index.

To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (53800)	3/29/2003 11:53:44 AM
From: hueyone	Respond to of 54805

Left with Cisco and Siebel, I'm not unhappy. Maybe you haven't been unhappy with your investment in Siebel, but the actual business performance of Siebel definitely comes up wanting. The 2002 10K is finally out for Siebel and Siebel remains the Gorilla of Stock Options for companies that I follow. I decided to see what Sebl's earnings are for its entire publicly traded existence, 1995-2002, when all the expenses, including stock option expense estimated at date of grant and amortized over the vesting periods, are taken into account. Not even Siebel's GAAP earnings, let alone Siebel's earnings that take into account stock option expense are impressive relative to Siebel's current market value. Total GAAP earnings, fiscal 1995 through fiscal 2002 are 452 million. Total after tax stock option compensation expense (Black Sholes), unreported on the income statement, is 2.275 billion dollars. Total aggregate earnings 1995-2002, including stock option expense is negative 1.823 billion dollars. See table below. All figures are in millions unless stated otherwise. I used figures from 10ks ahead of each year in question so I could pick up any restatement of earnings. After Tax Income Fisc Yr GAAP Inc. Op Exp w/Op Exp Source 1995 .317 .02 .297 1997 10k 1996 12.9 3.3 9.6 1998 10k 1997 (1.2) 12.7 (13.9) 1998 10K 1998 41.5 41.2 .3 2000 10K 1999 56.5 78.2 (21.7) 2000 10K 2000 123.0 286.0 (163.0) 2002 10K 2001 254.6 807.7 (553.0) 2002 10K 2002 (35.7) 1,046.2 (1,081.9) 2002 10K Totals, 1995-2002: After Tax Income GAAP Inc. Op Exp w/Op Exp 452 Mill 2.275 Bill (1.823 Bill)