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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (47335)	3/27/2003 2:50:12 PM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53068

War's Silver Lining 3/27/03 02:36 PM ET War. Huh! Yeah! What is it good for? -- Edwin Star One of the bullish arguments that I am starting to hear is that markets have historically done well during long wars in the past. Here is how the market performed during the last three major wars: World War II 1942 +13.37% 1943 + 19.09% 1944 +16.64% 1945 +31.38% Korea 1950 +25.64% 1951 +22.32% 1952 +14.59% 1953 +2.02% Vietnam 1963 +20.8% 1964 +18.85% 1965 +14.39% 1966 -15.78% 1967 +19.16% 1968 +7.93% 1969 -11.78 1970 +9.21% 1971 +11.95% 1972 +18.48% Using those dates, it looks like we have a 94.4% positive correlation between war and years with a positive return. That sure sounds very simple, but are the past situations similar to what we face today? Is war really the key event impacting the markets in these years? Are expectations for this war much different than what they were for prior wars?