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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (30248)	3/27/2003 8:58:22 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I agree with you the potential is there. But do you think that by the time oil production is increased the US will get to have some of its expenses paid, or will the world cry "plunder", and we will get to eat all the costs? I suspect the latter. Kyros

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (30248)	3/27/2003 12:27:27 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

LOL!!! Interesting test! If "if and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a hell of a christmas" DAK

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (30248)	3/27/2003 8:08:05 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 74559

Hawkmoon, Nice post... Very perceptive... A couple of minor corrections for your math on computing the value of oil... The Iraqi government doesn't get the full going price for a barrel. They get about 2/3 (varies; sometimes more, sometimes less) of the going price. The rest is consumed by middlemen long before Iraq gets the money. And then there is the thievery from the program, which is also quite costly to the government. Additionally, an oil well isn't up and running 24x7, 365/366 days a year. Each well requires routine maintenance periodically. A fair guess is that (on average) each well will lose about the equivalent of 1 month, sometimes longer. So, while that will reduce the dollars to some extent, the overall tone of your post is right on. My guess is that there will be insufficient dollars available from oil to offset US costs in administering the reconstruction efforts after the war. But the cost of not containing the current Iraqi regime conceivably could be much higher than the final costs for reconstruction. KJC