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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jlallen who wrote (15716)	3/27/2003 3:13:37 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

the guerrilla action in Baghdad IS THE MAIN ACTION all else is preliminary and a relative cake walk the faster they move north, the more vulnerable so all the news about speed highlights vulnerability major action? the entire Baghdad guerrilla action will become the centerpiece to the entire war that is not "mopping up", but rather the heart of the war Baghdad is the war, the rest is foreplay occupation (if it happens) is the cigarette after coitus capturing Baghdad is the primary objective I expect it to be the opposite of Saigon during VietNam we based in Saigon, and had trouble everywhere else then later, attacks came to the center here in Iraq, I expect we will have success in every tiny city and town but have big guerrilla troubles in larger cities unsure about Basra, since longstanding hatred of Saddam and ethnic Shi'ite background we will surround Baghdad, then comes trouble in every area leading to the cities over time, our siege of Baghdad will hardly be viewed as liberation instead, it is resemble THE SIEGE OF STALINGRAD we will be hurt with reinforcements, with attacks on fuel supplies our achilles heel is fuel & supply lines they will be shot at by snipers and guerrillas day after day we will be ducks on a pond with no cover, only the desert we have vastly underestimated this enemy we are attempting to dislodge them from their native country HAVE YOU FACTORED IN REINFORCEMENT COMING FROM NUMEROUS ARAB NATIONS ASSISTING SADDAM? OR AL QAEDA? OR HEZBOLLAH? OR ISLAMIC JIHAD? OR TALIBANS? if not, then you have missed a serious piece to this conflict do you believe the popular uprising in every single Arab nation will simply die out? or raise to a crescendo level, leading to entry into the war? I believe they will enter the guerrilla ranks WE CANNOT AND WILL NOT WIN A GUERRILLA WAR NO PRECEDENT IN HISTORY maybe you dont read history most Americans slept thru it by April 30th, I predict we will have parts of Baghdad captured, but have immense troubles in other parts this is a city larger than Metro Boston in size and population it is a city with entire networks of tunnels !!! by April 30th, it will be clear that we are embroiled in a guerrilla war that frustrates our military I believe the enemy has hidden tremendous amounts of small weaponry inside tunnels and mosques and basements we gave them several months to prepare we should have surprised them, but we didnt we should have gone in back in early autumn, but we didnt we should have had Turkey and NATO and UN onboard, but we didnt THIS WILL QUICKLY TURN INTO AN UNWINNABLE VIETNAM / jim