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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (87067)	3/27/2003 5:24:13 PM
From: w0z	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

"It is truly amazing, that we have managed to lose a global PR campaign, against the likes of Saddam Hussain." Give him time...he'll do the job for us by his actions. VX gas, human shields, surrender ruses, POW executions, etc.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (87067)	3/27/2003 5:58:03 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 281500

Reasons: 1. they don't buy the connection between Iraq and Al Queda/Islamism/terrorists. SOME HERE VIEW CHECHNYA MUCH IN THE SAME WAY. THEY RISK US SUPPORT FOR THEIR EFFORTS DOWN THE ROAD ESPECIALLY IF THEY USE A HEAVY HANDED APPROACH AS THEY OFTEN DO. 2. they see U.S. goals as unlimited. I DONT BUY THAT--BUSH AND PUTIN SPEAK. 3. more generally, they reject our unilateralism. THEY HAVE ADAPTED TO US BEFORE WHEN IN THEIR INTEREST. 4. MY ADDITION--THINK THEY LIKE THE FRENCH ARE IN DEEP DO DO WITH WHAT THEY HAVE SUPPLIED THE IRAQIS. LIKE IS OFTEN QUOTED FROM THE GODFATHER--"ITS JUST BUSINESS'.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (87067)	3/27/2003 6:08:23 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Reasons: 1. they don't buy the connection between Iraq and Al Queda/Islamism/terrorists. 2. they see U.S. goals as unlimited. 3. more generally, they reject our unilateralism. Jacob, You are projecting your views onto Putin. Russia has been opposing the US on Iraq since 1992. Russia has undermined the UNSC sanctions against Iraq for a decade, a key reason I don't but the notion of multilateral containment. The question to ask is why has Russia been so keen on resisting US opposition to Saddam Hussein for so long and why was it so important that they did some minor damage to their relationship with the US. The world is nowhere as black and white are you would have us believe: Israel and US bad, Russia and Palestine good. In all these conflicts, better to assume that there are no angels and no victims. Paul

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (87067)	3/27/2003 7:43:44 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 281500

The elephant in the living room is OIL. Secondarily the Russians are concerned that our liberation of Iraq will allow us great influence in the area, where even more oil is located in Iran and SA. The next 10-20 years will be years filled with great concern over the secure supply of oil and the availability of oil. Iraq's near term (2-5 years) ability to impact oil prices is limited and there is no reason to believe they wont stay in OPEC. After 5 plus years supply demand balance will be much easier to control as supply will be such that only SA & Iraq will be in a position the control prices. All other producers will be holding steady at best or in steep decline including Russia. The loss of Iraqi exports today at <2 mbpd and the energy markets are on edge. The loss of Iraqi production 5+ years from now when they are exporting 4+ mbpd and the markets will panic and all of the other consequences will follow.