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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3830)3/28/2003 12:06:58 PM
From: jrhana  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5423
 
The wild card for your scenario
is the ability of the Fed to print dollars.

I believe that in herky jerky fashion your deflation /deep recession picture will be overtaken first by stagflation and then a runaway inflationary boom. (I am talking over the next 10 years or so.)

Greenspan will not allow a deflationary depression even if he has to personally stand on a street corner and hand a $100,000 bill to every man woman and child.

POG should do well with extreme volatility (ST and IT).

All I know about real estate is that the last time we were in a prolonged weak dollar cycle, foreigners came in and gobbled up real estate in select markets. In fact real estate did well until interest rates began to seriously rise. At least in the two areas I am familiar with and own property:
Miami and Washington, DC (Georgetown). This I imagine would also apply in spades to ares like Manhattan and California.

Just my perhaps overly optimistic vision for the future.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3830)3/29/2003 10:35:33 AM
From: 4figureau  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5423
 
Just because the economy grew at an annual rate of only 1.4% in Q4 of 02 ..down from 4% in the previous quarter...and unemployment is stuck at about 6%.. and consumer confidence is at a 10-year low...and interest rates are at a record low of 1.25%.. compared to 8.1% during the 91 war is no reason for you to be so gloomy!

There are tax cuts coming! (gggg)