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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnM who wrote (87269)	3/28/2003 11:28:58 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

> Bush rhetoric would tend to undermine the divisions of reformer against mullah It does. But it does so by giving the hardliners the upper hand since now they can show that the reformers have little to show. > the notion of Iran and Syria coming to the aid of Saddam...strikes me as extraordinarily unlikely It is not "aiding Saddam" that they'd be after but opposing US. On other threads some people have been questioning why it has not happened already. They argue that if you know you are going to be next, why wait to be picked one at a time? I find it unlikely on the Iranian part (but not necessarily the Syrians), because Iran is more secure about its position. As well, before Bush can go after anyone else, he has to succeed in Iraq (and I don't mean just military success). Iran is betting that it is not going to happen before Bush is out and the next admin will not fallow on Bush's footsteps. ST

To: JohnM who wrote (87269)	3/28/2003 12:07:21 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

As for Syria, the notion of Iran and Syria coming to the aid of Saddam is more than disturbing but still strikes me as extraordinarily unlikely. Iran I doubt but I have read multiple reports of Syria storing chem weapons for Iraq. Where Syria moves, Hizbullah (& thus Iranian influence at one remove) is not far behind. Bashar Assad is really acting in a most reckless manner. Soon he will be facing down the US on one border, and Israel on the other. His economy is a basket case. Does he want to officially join the Axis of Evil? His father behaved far more shrewdly.