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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (87281)	3/28/2003 12:03:17 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Bill, I'll take a look at the Prospect articles. But in the meantime some thoughts. One of the dimensions of the current argument is whether democracy can be installed via force by an outside element. I have yet to read even a semi-convincing argument on that. I suspect we will find a short term military dictatorship in Iraq, after the completion of the invasion, turn itself into a longer term one, with US troops keeping it in place. I certainly hope not but I can't see how it can be avoided. The Sunnis won't stand for the Shiites to get an serious bit of power; nor will the Kurds wish either. Perhaps the federalism the Bush folk are talking about but their claim they wish to do it in a way that retains a united nation sounds like either unadulterated political spin or a formula for a military dictatorship. Given the history of the US in such situations, I tend to believe the latter. As for the arguments about Arab authoritarianism, one just has to chuckle. Coming from the US in which we've done more than a little to buttress dictators in the area against democratic forces--see Iran in the 50s, no doubt there are others. Yes, I know the Iranians are not Arabs, but the Arab authoritiarinism argument hardly distinguishes. Moreover, those argument echo with Seymour Martin Lipset's arguments in the 50s and 60s about working class authoritarianism in this country. Turned out to be an early neocon illusion but, as always, politically useful at the time.