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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Young who wrote (506)	3/28/2003 12:43:12 PM
From: i-node	Respond to of 3386

They appear to be executing according to plan. It is certainly worth holding a small position. It could be 30 in two years, or it could be zero. I suppose you could say that about any stock. The question is one of assigning probabilities that either of these will occur. I think 30 is pushing it, since they will still be technically losing money at that point. I've followed XMSR closely since its inception and have owned the stock off-and-on since the day they made their first sale. Never have I seen a company executing so closely in accordance with its plan. So far, one wrong turn has been made -- and that was failing to secure ALL the financing when they did the original secondary -- and I think they could just not have forecast the stock selling off the way it did. Still, dilution has not been horribly bad (the last round took us from 91M shares to about 265M, which should be all that is required). When you look at the underlying business model, the company looks great. When you look at management performance, it looks great. The fact that they've lost a ton of money is not unexpected nor was it avoidable. If such businesses were not worthy of financing, we could NEVER have a successful enterprise of this scale again. They don't get any better, in my view. All this talk about SAC is nonsense; SAC has declined every quarter and continues to do so. A day will come when instead of incurring costs to obtain subscribers, XM will MAKE MONEY from licensing its technology. Maybe 10 years off, but it will come.