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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (513)	3/28/2003 6:40:19 PM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3386

but I seem to recall you came up with a much higher figure. OK, that sounds fair. We will just chalk it up to another case of "selective interpretation" The correct statement would have been that subscriptions being acquired TODAY will be paid for one year from today. Well according to your ML analyst. The average CPGA for 2003 will be $175. (Which I would disagree with BTW) Of course we would expect those cost to decrease through the year. So it would probably be higher TODAY than the $175 figure. With an ARPU in the mid $9 range, they still will not be paid for one year from today. You have to include Costs of Capital. The $X (fill in the X) CPGA you are spending today comes with a cost. For XM. We'll call it 14%. Even with a CPGA of only $175. The Cost of Capital for the CPGA costs you over $2 a month (interest only). So to recoup your CPGA and cost of capital even at only $175. It takes you almost 2 years to recoup your CPGA! This is why I keep saying that CPGA is too High. ARPU is too small. I'm not trying to be argumentative, just trying to point out the problems investors in this company should take a look at and run through a spreadsheet. Regards, PCSTEL