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Politics : Stop the War! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (5073)	3/29/2003 9:49:45 AM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Respond to of 21614

Pause on Road to Baghdad Means Time for Saddam Sat March 29, 2003 08:32 AM ET By Douglas Hamilton DOHA (Reuters) - With every day that Baghdad holds out against U.S. cruise missiles and advancing land forces, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein gains time -- perhaps the only thing he can hope to win in a war against the United States. U.S. military sources said on Saturday commanders had ordered a pause of four to six days in the push toward Baghdad because of supply shortages and stiff Iraqi resistance. The reported delay -- while denied by the U.S. Central Command -- raises the possibility the war could stretch into a third week or beyond, dashing the pre-invasion hopes of moderate Arab states that it would all be over swiftly. No Western military expert believes Iraqi forces can win militarily, no matter how long the war lasts. But few if any Arab political analysts believe Saddam will capitulate or flee. They believe survival is his key strategy, for long enough to deny the United States a moral victory. And his ultimate ambition is to be hailed as a great Arab leader, even if he is killed in the achievement. "Saddam Hussein is going to take that pause as a very positive sign and he is going to exploit it," said former Jordanian foreign minister Jawad Anani. "There is no way he can win militarily. The only thing he can do, and this is what he has been planning, is to buy time. He is banking on rallying world public opinion. Over time he will benefit the more the claims of the coalition are shown not to be matched by results," he told Reuters. "Iraq started out with low expectations, so every little gain counts," Anani added. AS LONG AS IT TAKES Washington is sticking to its repeated assertion that the war's outcome is not in doubt, but this is tempered now by the caveat that "it will take as long as it takes." But the longer it takes, the more uncertain it becomes. Abdel Monem-Said, director of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, said Saddam would be able to portray any pause in the U.S. advance as an Iraqi victory. "It will be considered a defeat (for the invading force), at least for a week, even if it doesn't change the fundamental balance of power," he said, because it will be seen as a sign the U.S. military is not invincible. A grinding siege of Baghdad is not the first choice of U.S. strategists. But a bloody street-by-street take-over of the capital is seen as even less desirable -- and possibly not much quicker. "They will gain a victory by destroying Iraq but they will be destroyed in the whole world, politically, and in their credibility," said Professor Mohammed al-Musfir, a political scientist at Qatar University. "They laughed when the Iraqi people voted 100 percent for Saddam in election and now look; all of the Iraqis are fighting and taking up guns. He has become a hero. They have made him a hero. He has stood for 10 days," he added. The hope in Washington and London remains that Saddam's leadership structure can be so shaken by bomb strikes and other attacks that it will collapse on itself while U.S. forces ring the city at a distance. "Saddam's only hope for survival is to drag it out," said retired U.S. Army general William Nash, a 1991 Gulf War commander. Saddam would try to hold on until the international community demanded a cease-fire, he told the BBC. But some Arab intellectuals despair of a cease-fire, saying the "regime change" demand by Washington and London left no other way out than total U.S.-British victory, precluding talks. "There is nothing left to negotiate. They demand that Saddam goes and he will not. His people would turn against him if he surrendered now," Al-Mufir said. GRIEF, RAGE AND DEFIANCE Grief and rage over civilian casualties appear to be rallying the people of Baghdad. No major provincial cities are under U.S. or British control and there has been no firm sign of Iraqis celebrating "liberation," as hoped for. Western military experts also say they simply do not know how hard a fight will be waged by the Republican Guard and Special Republic Guard defending Baghdad. What they do know is that they currently outnumber U.S. forces to the south. The ultimate goal of Bush Administration proponents of the invasion is to spark a democratic transformation of the Middle East, starting with Iraq. But the bloodier the overthrow of Saddam, the more difficult that may become. "Arab popular appeal is with Saddam," Anani said. "He is seen as the underdog. His country is occupied. And this is not seen by Arabs as a war against Saddam. It is seen as just the first step in an American war against Muslims and their sympathies are with him," the Jordanian analyst said reuters.com