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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Condor who wrote (87910)	3/30/2003 10:37:34 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I am not an expert, but I do have about 4 years of very intensive study of the energy industry. I am very confidant that looking at the supply situation in 3 year increments that we are very close to maximum production. Perhaps we can increase present global production through Iraq and SA over the next 3-6 years and this will do more than offset declines in other areas. But after that we reach a plateau of production. The developing economies such as China and India will likely represent the vast majority of incremental demand for oil. The IEA maintains allot of very forward statistics that you may be able to get access to. Also our EIA does the same. Unfortunately many of these agencies have economists that think petroleum is available in unlimited quantities and have expectations for future supply that are not considered possible by anyone in the industry. So in a few years when supply hits a plateau, prices will rise and the world will be competing to use the fuel as efficiently as possible. How this pans out I dont know, but I dont expect we will be seeing the present size of HUMVEES and SUV's filling parking lots in 2010. In short we are forced to learn to conserve as others buy their first electric appliances and motor vehicles that they can afford from working in industries that move from the USA to Asia. iea.org