<<<Hello All
Have come back to the SI site after some time. It’s amazing to see the amount of political discussion and debates going on this website and also in most of the threads >>>
Thank you for your comments Sajjad and I appreciate that your visit. I believe it’s been quite some time since you last came to my cyber-house and my lounge through which I connect with the world at large. When I started this thread politics and cricket, on my personal profile, was an area of personal interest along with French food being at a close third.
Since 1997, or from the inception of the thread, I have been a firm believer in the openness and interconnectivity of the world along with a new model of the economy, which I believe is going through a pause and holding its breath since 2000. Since 9-11 you might not have dropped by, I personally believe the very important factors that unite global connectivity have been attacked. 9-11 was not an attack on America, it was an attack on the “death of distance” and it was attack trying to recreate those distance, the death of which were responsible for the great bull run of the markets. Now this is an issue, which I hope I will have time to discuss in more detail but if you surf the archives of the thread since 9-11 I have geared myself towards global affairs. I have taken the view that until the dark forces, that are trying to dislodge the very infrastructure of global economy into abyss, are not comprehensively addressed there can be no bull run possible.
Of course the macro-economic factors and huge PEG based analysis of the cash flows did not help either pre 9-11 and the reinterpretation of PEG and realignment of the internet and technological universe helped the settling of NASDAQ to realistic levels. However that said 9-11 our Vatican changed and as Dr Rice put it today, “the world was seen differently from that day” and I have also echoed that sentiment. I firmly believe in the politics of the eradication of the threat to our global interconnectivity from the likes of Osama, who have missed no chance to miss an opportunity over the decades like Arafat and people like Saddam Hussein. The efforts of these people, to put the entire nation of Islam on a collision course with the West, became a subject of interest and since such a path would put an end to the connected and created a schism. Myself, adhering to the belief of the death of distance and the oneness of mankind, sincerely believe that all economy is local and all valuations within our universe of interest are dependent on these factors which are emerging as new evolving challenges in the future to mankind. I have never really discussed, indeed never in such detail, as to what motivates me to speak of politics and assorted global issues but over the politics of globe is in my opinion the burning issue around which market’s performance depend. My asset classification have definitely but since I have always been a trader from the perspective of the event horizon and event driven, my strategy to write on global events and make my opinions and stick my head up.
Try to think of course of actions, make mistakes, think of consequences has led me to the present cross roads, where Idea of the Day thread even though its name has remained, has evolved to the condition where my personal thoughts and views can be expressed without any omissions or additions. My reaction to most of these events have been event driven, if things affect me too much I’ll be theorising and analysing the course of events however I have been writing for other newspapers and been expressing myself on a global media but this thread remains a window to my mind. When I started this thread in 1997 I committed to myself that I will be writing a history of every living day of my life, how I think, how I react… come rain, hail, storm, travels, tragedies, betrayals, deceit, abuses, criticisms or praises I have continued this thread to the best of my abilities and anchored all by myself with the few friends who take the effort to pass by time and again to help me feel that someone out there is listening and reading.
This thread is an example of a small mind thinking about bigger problems. People have different views as to why do I do this but some people are born differently and have no agendas in life, they are merely motivated by intellectual discourses. A person like me who is handicapped by my writing ability, grammar, impatience when it comes to edition of the draft, or make any effort to make it look presentable have naturally, over a period of time, remain mired in this thread. Times have moved on for others but for me it’s same old Ike, some old syntax errors, same old grammatical faux pas, same old abuses. I have made some great friends and since you started with your visit after a long it inspired a “deja-vous feeling” and allowed to ponder over a few evocative memories of this thread. Of course I am helped by my son, who can take my dictation and type all this without glaring errors, since when I type my mind works faster than the typing speed and my impatience not to read the draft a second time ends up in a kind of writings I create and that hodgepodge is what 'Idea of the Day' is about today.
No big punditry was ever thought about and no big agendas were ever thought about. It is the life of a very ordinary man, and it is a window to my mind and I will try to keep it alive until such time I am physically do it. I do sometimes think that over the next few years it will be a legacy. We set the die, stick our head out, forecast events, most of the time I am vindicated by my stand and sometimes I am wrong. The best thing here is that the setting of the die, taking an unconventional position, putting my name and my picturing in challenging on Orthodoxy. On virtually every issue, we never ducked in the Lewinsky-Clinton affair we were pro-Clinton since I thought that moral turpitude should not be the cause of impeachment since we all can be found guilty. As Jesus said, “Let he without sin cast the first stone”, and in the case of Afghanistan and Gore’s electoral problems, in case of OBL, in case of Israel-Palestine, in case of India-Pakistan standoff, in case of nuclear detonations by the two powers we made certain analysis and most of the time we have been not very far from the end results. These successes have helped me to keep thinking and keep analysis and I keep re-evaluating my whole process of analysis and if I am wrong I try to correct my whole process of analysis.
<<<When you attempt to examine the very tragic market bombing and the bloody deaths of the innocent civilians, in light of the above, facts start pointing to a bitter reality that can tragically very much happen in the future also, that it could have been caused by one of the our bombs in the allied forces. Though it definitely has to be un-intentional, but looking at the 90% precision of some of those bombs, we better be prepared to accept the responsibility for the 10% of the collateral damage. >>>
The recent invasion of Iraq where the Panzer move went quite faster than the supply trucks and the whole purpose was that “shock & awe” could have gotten the regime to fall. Some analysts do not understand why Tommy Frank proceeded at such lengths, just to stop 50 miles short of Baghdad. Even a fool and a non-military strategist that it was not a run into Baghdad, after all we knew that there were six divisions such as Al-Hummarabi, Medina and Al-Nidah division protecting the Baghdad.
The shock and awe campaign was meant, going from my flawed analysis, was to get the regime down as the generals of these elite republican guard units must have promised some kind of action in the face of this massive Allied thrust. The propaganda battle, where 51st division fell and we all bought it, did work for the first 72 hours and the absence of Saddam from the scene even until now did not help to unravel the regime.
That was one aspect of the major propaganda war, which did not work out the way one of the interest party wanted it to be. Imagine if the regime had fell and then everyone would have been singing praises for Rumsfeld and Tommy Frank, as to the low cost war won by them. Good generals are those who have the foresight and the fortitude to prepare for the worst and expect the best. Once the thrust of Baghdad had been made and the regime did not collapse then the next step for Gen Frank would be to wait for the supply lines to be established and then pulverise the four armoured divisions and two mechanised divisions, soften them up so to speak, and then make a move. That was the underlying strategy and there is no failure as such, there was an initial move to checkmate as is the practise of a Grandmaster in his opening bid and if the other party did not crumble, as is the case in this particular chess game, the stage two unfolds to unveil a broader invasion plan. These two strategies are not devoid of each other, rather they are complementary to one another. The shock and awe was on phase and the second phase was attrition and surrender.
The propaganda war takes into account these factors and those of who us who analyse it from a geo-political and socio-historical perspective, we can see those fault lines but our analysis, but our own little analysis read few and far, is effective because we tie the events and then see the historical & geographical reality and realign them with the current evolving scenarios.
10% error probability is far too high in my opinion and if that were so we would have seen far higher civilian casualties. The information and disinformation is sifted through and is a constant process but I have highlighted in my post regarding the market bomb some issues, which have not been answered. I would ICRC to check the casualties, the tragedy is too big and I’m not prepared to accept Iraqi information minister on that. A doctor speaking to the reporter said that he has counted 55 bodies of civilians in the market place but this has to be verified by independent sources. I still firmly believe that there was no reason for wooden coffins to be shown within 3 hours of the attack and the highlighting was Musa Kazim mosque. We all know Imam Musa Kazim is revered by the Twelver Shi’ites so the issue that air defence general has been dismissed, the way the funerals were televised, the highlighting of the mosques shows a certain amount of design and effort going into this whole tragedy. This single man knows very well that he and his two sons could saved Iraq from this bloodshed but for him he is bigger than the state, rather he is the state and the people. Even if all 25 mn Iraqis are sacrificed for him it’s not enough. We all know that he has very little regard for his own people, Adnan Khairullah his own brother in law was killed in a helicopter incident, his two son-in-law were brutally murder by Uday and Qusay when they returned from Jordan and look at the number of layers we are seeing who protect this illegitimate regime from being overthrown. Goebbels kind of propaganda is only required in a closed regime like Nazi and the Baathist party is of the same ilk, although on an appreciably lower scale. If Saddam had Hitler’s ability and charisma he would have the whole region under his iron thumb. He tried with Iran and tried to subdue Kuwait and Saudi Dirhan province so in my opinion still the jury is out and until the Qatar Central Command accept the responsibility and count the number of sorties, like they did for the first bomb and unequivocally stated that it was not their hit we should remain wary of Iraqi claims. Don’t forget that Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabia are propagating his cause with little regard to the choice of the Iraqi people, where will they stand when after the liberation and when the sword of Damocles no longer hovers over their head these same organisations will be at a loss of words.
<<<Firstly looking at the story itself. In spite of all the details at our disposal, note that neither the US or UK had denied they were responsible for that bombing, they said they were investigating it still. In fact in the same story, Mr. Blair’s spokesperson never categorically stated they were NOT responsible by hedged himself by saying that “unspecified intelligence indicated that U.S. and British bombing may not have been to blame for explosions in two marketplaces in Baghdad” and note that he stopped short, however, of saying that Iraqi missiles were responsible for the explosions, which reportedly killed scores of civilians.
Secondly to link the story of the defense general being fired, as being mentioned in some circles, as indicative of somehow Iraq’s forces made the blunder of firing the missile, appear to be absurd, especially if the general “accomplished” the mission. >>>
The issue of the general being fired is due to the fact that maybe that Saddam is not in control and that the collective command, who are running Iraq at the moment, might have thought that this crime will be unearthed soon since the origin of the missile can be easily from the kind of craters it creates. So propaganda battle on the war front is one thing and not punishing him is the other. I’m definitely sure that in a few days we’ll come to know the truth and I hope that it is not some evil internal design only a mistake of Iraqi air defences or of the Allies. The most important point is that we all know that Allied forces are not trigger happy forces, the reason Basra has not fallen and the reason Nasriyah is not fallen and they are not walking into Baghdad is because of the civilian casualties that it will entail. The brute force factor would have changed the whole equation and it is about winning the minds of the people, like they won over in Afghanistan. They are isolated incidents but as a nation Afghanistan is today entact and a far much better place to live in. If Allies are not using any brute force and respecting the level of human casualties then suspicion lies on the other side and not that of the Allies. They will accept if they make a mistake and I’m sure of that but my analysis that since this is not scorched earth policies being pursued by the Allies I don’t see such a massive error can be made. Let’s give the devil its due and the conduct of the war in eleven days has been immaculate and who is not playing by the rules of engagement. From mining of Umm Qasr to torching the oil wells someone doesn’t care about the well being of his own people. Saddam believe his own welfare exceeds that of the 25 million ppl of his state and no one is bigger than the state.
<<<Secondly Iraq if it wanted to influence Iranians public opinion or the opinion of the shias around the world can more easily exploit the facts around the most holiest of the holiest places for shias around the terrain of Southern Iraq, especially since it out of the range of western journalists. It can easily create a situation in Al Najaf and Kerbala currently cut out of the world’s eyes and potentially instigate a violent backlash by exploiting the shias emotion, mobilizing the shias around the world not just Iran. Kerbala especially provides that trigger. >>>
I think Najaf, Kerbala are hostage of Iraqi thugs and the Shi’ite world is rejoicing at their liberation. Look at what he is doing to the citizens of Basra, he is hitting those fleeing with mortar, the Desert Rats are providing the citizens with cover so what I’m trying to communicate in my analysis is that he\his regime is trying to create a schism by showing that the Shi’ite portion of Baghdad was hit by the Allies and that rose my suspicions since it was a crude effort to feed wrong information to the Shi’ites on the south and make Iran unhappy about what’s happening. Though of course there is no way that Iran or Syria is happy since a free Iraq will have some kind of repercussion on the entire region. A representative government in Iraq will change the entire region and the die has been cast and we have taken our positions if Iraqis are freed like I expect then you would see that once the population of Kerbala, Najaf and Basra who are being held hostage against their will by Saddam they will look for jobs. Today the British army needed 85 as cooks and cleaners in Umm Qasr and there were a thousand people applying for the job. The civilians were complaining that they had no water to drink. The fact of the matter is that the holiest of the shrines of the Shi’ites are being protected, are being helped and that from Umm Qasr to Al Zubary to Kerbala the die is set the people will be freed and they are looking for that freedom. You can see it all around you can see it all around, two million litre will start flowing to Umm Qasr, Zubary and Basra from Kuwait. This was done in 5 days! And the people of South Iraq will never ever forget this favor. The implosion of regime is near the day of reckoning is approaching fast, who could have thought the great USSR will fall overnight, Iraq by history and by events is subject to that test of implosion, rarely nations or cities have passed Stalingrad was one on basis of motherland slogan Stalin saved Russia but here the forces that are arrayed against Saddam do not have 5 million Iraqi blood on their hands which Hitler did, democratic forces arrayed in face of Iraqi regime will derive the final nail in his coffin. The cruel facts of history and socio-cultural facts are clearly indicative of such a result, if Saddam produces a Stalin like popular resistance without taking the population of Baghdad as hostage we will be wrong and we will be ashamed of our projections. The jury and market bomb and fall of Baghdad is still out, lets wait and see... If the bomb was a mistake the Qatar command will own it I am sure and will regret it. |
