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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (33785)	4/2/2003 11:52:31 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197214

Price Nokia is paying for CDMA entry in China. ccidnet.com (not translation, highlights and my editing) so this appears to be the grand scheme. Nokia is giving up 40% of this new company in exchange for the manufacturing rights that Capitel and Putian possess, especially Capitel's. As licensees, capitel has a couple of CDMA handsets but has not sold much. Putian is a partner with Toshiba so it is unclear how this works. Capitel apparently has production capacity of around 1 million, so they will be a "winner" because they turned can utilize that idle production line. Unicom is going to be the big winner. They need a very cheap 1x handset for the upcoming prepaid launch, with sim cards. They don't want to subsidize or reduce subsidies to bare bones. NOK is paying that subsidy as entry fee. The irony here being the Koreans are now on the other side of the "chip dumping" strategy they invented. Would Samsung and LG cry foul? To whom? or just eat it and match Nokia to maintain their market share? How about the Chinese manufacturers? Regardless, like I said, Unicom would be big winner with handset supply assured this year at very low cost. QCOM is going to be rather neutral, unfortunately, under any scenario. If nokia fails, that would be due to the competition meeting nokia's challenge. They in turn would try to get something from qcom. I suspect that may be what samsung is after now, a cheaper chipset for them to match nokia. QCOM would sell more chipsets but ASP would go down. If nokia succeeds, then Unicom would likely beat sub estimates and qcom benefits from more handset royalties. Either case, it will not be earth shattering. just my 2 cents.