03/30/30: Uncensored Info on Iraq War from the Russian GRU
Previous Reports Here
March 29-30 did not undergo any significant changes. Positional engagements, firefights, and active reconnaissance activities
continue all along the front on both sides.
The concentration of U.S. forces continues near Karbala. As was noted in a previous report, the U.S. force concentrated here
totals up to 30,000 soldiers and officers, up to 200 tanks, and up to 230 helicopters. The latest photographs of this area permit
the conclusion that the troops are engaged in maintenance activities and in the repair and deployment of a rear-echelon
infrastructure.
Radio intercepts indicate that General Tommy Franks, commander of coalition forces, visited the troops yesterday evening.
He personally reviewed troop positions and met with unit commanders.
We do not yet have detailed information, but we can assume that the commander heard reports of his subordinates and
assigned objectives for the next two to three days.
A meeting was held at the main headquarters, at which an analysis of the maintenance status of the force was presented. In a
personal telephone conversation with a colleague in the U.S., one of the meeting participants described that status as
"deplorable," and in his words, "...one third of our equipment can be fearlessly taken to the dump. We are holding on thanks
only to round-the-clock repairs. Our heroes aren't the marines at the front but the "worms" in the repair companies. Without
them we'd be fighting from the backs of camels long ago."
On the basis of radio intercepts, reports from both sides, and intelligence from the start of the war, the coalition has lost
between 15 and 20 tanks in combat, around 40 troop carriers and fighting vehicles, more than 50 trucks and up to 10
helicopters. In addition, we can mention, as a minimum, another 40 unserviceable tanks, about the same number of troop
carriers and fighting vehicles, and approximately 100 units of various vehicles and approximately 40 helicopters. These data
were obtained by analyzing unclassified technical reports that are sent from the combat zone to the Pentagon.
In the vicinity of An-Najaf, up to two battalions of U.S. Marines attempted a night action to drive Iraqi forces from occupied
positions. Despite the nearly four hours of artillery preparation and two aircraft and missile strikes, the units that advanced on
the Iraqi positions were met with substantial grenade and machine-gun fire and were forced to withdraw to their original
positions.
In the course of the night attack, one tank was blown up by a mine and two troop carriers were knocked out of action.
According to radio intercepts, two Marines were killed and 5 others wounded.
An attempt by the Americans to improve their positions on the left bank of the Euphrates at the city of Al Nasiriya were also
unsuccessful. Despite taking measures to assure secrecy and surprise, the American units were met with fire and withdrew to
their original positions. According to the reports of commanders, three Marines are missing in action and four others were
wounded.
These unsuccessful night attacks again confirmed the assumptions of the coalition command that the Iraqi forces are much
better equipped than had been estimated before the war. In particular, a February 2003 Defense Intelligence Agency
intelligence summary noted that the Iraqi army had almost no night vision devices besides those mounted on heavy armor,
and that the serviceability of those units was doubtful. In reality, coalition forces have found that the Iraqis have an adequate
quantity of night vision devices and night sights, even at the company level, and are trained in how to use them. Of particular
concern is the fact that the majority of captured devices of this kind are of the latest manufacture and of U.S. and Japanese
origin. An analysis of the origin of these devices forced the U.S. to start talking of a "Syrian trail." In this regard, American
military experts have analyzed military imports from Syria for the past two years and drawn very depressing conclusions to
the effect that, in the course of upcoming battles, coalition forces may come up against the most modern Russian-made
antitank systems, as well as the most up-to-date radar and communications reconnaissance systems, as well as command and
communications systems that are resistant to electronic warfare.
In this same area, at the entrance to the city, in coalition-occupied territory, a U.S. Marine checkpoint was attached by an Iraqi
suicide-soldier, who blew up a passenger vehicle that was loaded with explosives next to American soldiers. At least 5 people
were killed.
The coalition command, in a closed radio broadcast to the troops, called upon them to exhibit "restraint and calmness" and to
"not give in to emotions and feelings of anger." This broadcast was recorded after two Iraqis were shot by British troops in
front of residents of a street in the city of Um Qasr, after an automatic weapon was found in a house during a search, and
after an American helicopter, returning from the front, shot its cannon at an occupied Iraqi passenger vehicle in its own rear
logistics zone. Investigations into both incidents have been announced. However, military psychologists believe that what
happened was the result of extreme stress, which is being experienced by the majority of coalition soldiers and they propose
transferring these persons for medical treatment.
In the area of Basra, British units have completely halted their advance and have transitioned to positional battle. Individual
attacks are occurring in the vicinity of the airport, as well as on the not completely occupied Faw peninsula, where Iraqis
continue to hold onto a wide foothold.
In the words of British commanders, the troops are extremely exhausted and are in dire need of rest and replenishment of
provisions.
Three British soldiers went missing in the course of the day here, and two were wounded. Today, at night, south of Al
Nasiriya, a rear company of the 3rd MPD (a guess: Mechanized Infantry Division -- Translator) was ambushed. In the
course of the attack, up to 10 fuel trucks were burned, one of the escort troop carriers was knocked out, 8 soldiers were
wounded, and one soldier is missing. It is not yet clear who attacked the column, the Iraqi Republican Guards or one of the
guerilla units that are active here. Analysis of unclassified information regarding combat actions in the area permits the
conclusion that all press contacts are being sharply curtailed and information from battle areas is being cut off, with the
exception of official reports. For example, since yesterday morning, under the pretext of increasing security, all Internet and
telephone circuits from the division level down were shut down. These had previously been used by enlisted personnel,
NCOs, and junior officers to allow them to communicate with their families and loved ones in the U.S. and Europe. This is
evidence that force commanders are not only trying to change the progress of the information war, but also that in the next
day or two, coalition soldiers may try to deliver a powerful blow against the enemy and that commanders are doing everything
they can to avoid leaking this.
All announcements of some "two-week time out in the war" are, in the opinion of analysts, nothing more than disinformation.
The forces and resources available to the coalition at this time are sufficient for at least another week or two of active
operations, which corresponds to the approximate scale of a serious operation. Moreover, the start of that operation can be
expected within the next day or so in the vicinity of Karbala. We have already tried to discover the objective of the operation
in a previous report.
At the same time, planning of a new, large-scale operation that utilizes newly arriving troops has begun and is proceeding.
Military experts, based on our research and intelligence activities regarding coalition activity, believe that this will more than
likely be an attack from the base region of Karbala and will have the envelopment of Baghdad from the west as its objective,
with coalition forces emerging in the vicinity of Lake Tartar west of the city of El Kadita (another alternative, is to emerge to
the west of Lake Tartar to Samarr). From there, part of the force will begin an advance toward Saddam Hussein's home town
of Tikrit. From there, it will turn toward Baghdad, while the other force will hit the rear of Iraqi forces acting to the north in
the area of Kirkura and Mosul. This attack will require 60,000 coalition soldiers and officers, at least 300 tanks and up to 200
helicopters. It is conjectured that such a force can be brought here by April 15 and can be in position by April 18.
Some data allow us to surmise the appearance of a serious conflict between commanders in the field and higher-level military
and political leaders in the U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who is one of the primary developers of and
lobbyists for the military operation in Iraq, is blaming field commanders and General Tommy Franks personally for
indecisiveness and passivity, which have led to the war being drawn out and today's "stalemate" situation. The latter, in turn,
freely describes the Secretary to his circle of confidants as an "old windbag" and "opportunist" who has dragged the army
into war under the most unfavorable conditions. However, many officers believe that these military commanders are both
responsible for the military setbacks of the coalition. . Rumsfeld made the most serious errors in planning the forces and
resources that would be required for this campaign, but Franks could not show firmness in achieving complete and
high-quality preparation for the campaign and in fact "lay down" before the capricious demands of the politicians...
It is fully apparent that the development of this conflict will end with the retirement of one of the participants. According to
some information, Rumsfeld has already proposed replacing the force commander to President Bush, but Bush overruled that
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