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Politics : Stop the War! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (5867)	3/31/2003 1:36:05 PM
From: Thomas M.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21614

Syria is a known terrorist state. What do you mean? Tom

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (5867)	4/1/2003 5:54:06 AM
From: zonder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21614

<<Which of the excuses used to persuade the American public on invading Iraq do you propose to use for the case on Syria?>> Syria is a known terrorist state. My God. And so it begins: Pakistan is where Taliban originated and where some Al-Qaeda were captured, so it clearly is a country that breeds terrorism and should also be invaded. Almost all 9/11 terrorists were from Saudi Arabia, where also funding for a lot of terrorist groups originates. Saudi Arabia should be invaded. Remember the Bali attack? It shows they are home to terrorism. Invade Bali. Palestinians are obviously a terrorist lot. Have Israel annex Palestinian territories and expel Palestinians. Oh and by the way, everybody knows about the IRA. Ireland is obviously is a terrorist state. Invade Ireland. Do you see the problem? I'd like to put out as many fires as we can while we're there I realize that. You don't seem to see, however, that those "fires" will have a cost. They will fuel hatred and terrorism. <<Again, what method of valuation are you using?>> Gosh do you think you're the only person capable of looking at a chart. WHAT CHART????????? Are you under the impression that charts are about VALUATION? That you can somehow GUESS the fair value of a company from a CHART? That a company's chart has the value, say, USD 8.3 bn written in some hidden code waiting to be deciphered??? Do you have ANY IDEA how a company is VALUED? It seems to me if the dow breaks 7200 that the next stop is 6300. From there its a little harder but based on what I was looking at I thought 4700 to 5000 was a real possibility if we broke below 6300. Oh, it "seems" to you, hmm? How is any of that "valuation"??? You are looking at a chart and drawing lines and hoping the future will follow the past in some fashion. That is "technical analysis". It has nothing to do with "valuation", which had to do with your claim that the market is "overvalued": The fact still remains that we are over valued Message 18777608 Did you understand ANYTHING from my answer to this statement, where I talked about lower interest rates causing lower discount rates which in turn increases the valuations and all that? As anyone who has ever done a DCF can tell you, valuation is not just P/E, and has everything to do with your assumptions about the future as well as the interest rate environment. In that light, most companies (talking about those with real businesses & making real money here) are not expensive at all, given that: (1) Interest rates are very low (which decreases the discount rate and hence increases the fair value of companies according to discounted cash flows) (2) US stops with these imperial aspirations NOW and gets back to being a republic (lower uncertainty, lower energy prices, etc) Message 18777667 Does any of this sound like technical analysis of charts to you? I base this on several things....current earnings, future growth estimates and since we went too high on the upside I suspect we may go too low on the downside. So what you mean is that your analysis of charts is based on earnings and growth estimates. Congratulations, I think you just discovered a new discipline of equity analysis :-) I do look at charts and unless the fundamentals change and we get a pop in earnings we're over valued Not sure if they teach this branch of using earnings estimates for technical analysis anywhere yet. I certainly have never heard about it. So why don't you teach us the basics? Like, how on earth a chart tells you the value of a company would be a good start. I might add that I find talking with you to be quite a chore Possibly because, frankly, you don't know what you are talking about in this subject. I understand that it will of course be a "chore" for you to try to argue a demonstrably incorrect concept with someone who knows the subject a bit better than yourself. I am not saying this for all the other subjects we have talked about. Just this one - equity valuation and its relation (or lack thereof) with technical analysis. >>Do you have a basis for that or are you just making it up?<< I find this remark to be somewhat insulting. It was an honest question. I was wondering if you were really doing some valuation, since you were only talking about graphics, resistance levels etc. You find it "insulting" because you do not even understand why the question is valid. Q.E.D.