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To: Ironyman who wrote (3855)	3/31/2003 6:05:33 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 5423

Plunge Protection Team working overtime that is the first explanation second is stock investors seeking safe haven dont expect for rates to remain low for a long time eventually creeping price inflation will arrive then when China revalues the yuan, another jolt to rates then if/when Arabs price oil in euros, another jolt rates will remain down as long as China and Arabs are contained if we see a worldwide shunning of dollars, then long rates will rise the PPT is powerful they are screwing the entire financial system now the intervention may cause damage that will take a decade to work out properly Puplava has mentioned several times the EXTREME INCONSISTENCIES I thought higher rates would have arrived by now I admit they havent but it has little to do with elections imho it has everything to do with PPT and the not-yet-happened events involving China, and Arab petrodollars price inflation has not arrived yet my premise is founded on its arrival we have seen some early tremors though producer prices are up even some consumer prices are up certainly energy prices are up and employment costs have been up for a long time with monetary expansion rising at an annualized 20% level (MZM money supply), the seeds are there we just need time for germination are you saying it wont happen? or just not until Nov04? / jim

To: Ironyman who wrote (3855)	4/1/2003 10:47:15 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 5423

article puts it better than I can... higher rates coming Analysis: U.S. budget approaching the wall By Martin Hutchinson UPI Business and Economics Editor upi.com The relationship between the size of the federal deficit and the "crowding out" effects in the capital markets is not linear. Instead, it is an example of a typical relationship seen in financial markets, in which there is almost no effect over a considerable range, then slowly an effect begins to appear, before it explodes hyperbolically into a "wall" at which in this case the budget deficit becomes unfinanceable. You can see examples all over the place of countries hitting the wall; Argentina in 2001 is the most recent, but Russia in 1998 and Mexico in 1994 are both well-known recent examples. in the statistics world we occasionally employ a predictive model, which is best described as an "S-Curve" it describes phenomena whereby an effect is approached like a slow acting magnet, then suddenly takes hold e.g. offering a discount to switch brand e.g. offering some incentive to become a member of some group it is called the Logistic Regression model I suspect that higher rates will come gradually when a certain threshold is crossed the author here believes it is something like 6-8% of GDP for the US Treasury federal annual deficit right now we are annualized at about 6.0% (from memory) I assume you are interested in constructive engagement discussion and not just rattling my cage with empty digs this is a very serious debt issue I expect the annual federal deficit to top $1 trillion eventually like in 2004, when you add in war costs & reconstruction costs that will certainly raise longterm interest rates by then, the dollar downward momentum will contribute to the crowding effect / jim