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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (88674)	4/1/2003 10:30:37 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 281500

> Since Bush came into office in January 2001...I wondered whether you were assuming something else in addition to just switching currencies Thanks for clarifying. I guess it was too late at night and I wasn't putting the time in saying all that I should have. There are many things you could have done (hind sight being 20:20 and all) but my point was about lack of confidence in Bush's plan. During the early part of his presidency, the expectation had been that Bush would be friendly to business and improve economy. That expectation was built into USD. But for more than a year now USD has been falling against CD. I don't think it is just about oil. One reason has been that Canadian economy has been stronger than US for quite a while now. So much so that the Bank of Canada has actually raised interest rates. But when you look at other measures such as the dollar index, it shows it is as much (if not more) a matter of USD falling than CD rising. The classic defense against the falling dollar is to either make a bet on the dollar index or to buy Gold. Both of these would have paid off handsomely. I saw an interview with George Soros and he was pretty confident that when you smooth out the fluctuations, US is headed lower for at least the next 2 years. ST