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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (70150)	4/1/2003 4:02:17 PM
From: GrillSgt	Respond to of 209892

You don't for down cycles the tops *usually: come in on days 1-3. Today is day 1 and entirely possible that day 1 (today) marked the highs. 8100, 860, ndx 1030 The nice thing is ,,it won't usually dumpster dive until after the first 1-3 days of down cycle whcih will give you a chance to sell some to catch the mid cycle lows. If it's a downer..the first top is day 1-3. Looking back at recent cycles it appears that the trader has the biggest advantage in the second half of the cycle and specifically the last 4 trading days. For a Down cycle lasting 13 days, expect the first half low to be about day 6 or 7 and the second half low on the last day, day 13. From day 6 on, look for a small rally with ~2 of the next 3 days up, and then a decline to end the cycle on the last 3 days. It is the last days that offer the edge. If they are to be down days as they were expected to be in the down cycle then one should be looking at a buying climax somewhere around day 10 or so. As the market is climaxing that day it will be a great opportunity to sell as OBV deteriorates. If OBV does not decline then look for a sell on weakness overnight or at the open. This is because the recent rally is over and the expectation and probability is high that the by the 13th day we will see a close below the mid cycle low close. Things change as well w=esp in these news driven moves..the last down cycle only went 9 days...