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To: Gottfried who wrote (9229)	4/1/2003 11:37:16 PM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95639

Manufacturing's 4-Month-Old Expansion Ended in March Tue Apr 1,11:20 AM ET By Michael S. Derby and John McAuley, Of Dow Jones Newswires story.news.yahoo.com NEW YORK -- War worries and soft demand ended four straight months of growth in the nation's manufacturing sector in March, a report released Tuesday showed. The Institute for Supply Management said its March business index fell to 46.2 from 50.5 in February. The index stood at 53.9 in January. Readings below 50 indicate contraction of activity in the manufacturing sector, while readings above 50 denote expansion. The overall ISM index was well below economists' expectations for a reading of around 49. Many on Wall Street had feared the index would be weaker than forecast after the Purchasing Management Association of Chicago index on Monday fell much more than analysts had predicted. The ISM report comes amid a deepening wave of weakness seen across the economy over recent months. Merrill Lynch economists note that some 80% of the data released during March fell short of forecasts. Federal Reserve (news - web sites) officials have blamed the malaise on widespread uncertainty in the face of war, and they are confident that a resolution in Iraq (news - web sites) will be followed by better economic growth. "March wasn't a good month for manufacturing, as the sector appears to have lost its momentum," Norbert Ore, the ISM survey's director, said in a statement. "Supply managers continue to be challenged by business conditions. The start of the war will begin to bring clarity to a difficult situation. In many ways, the threat of war was more intimidating than the actualization," he said. The March ISM reading, if it were to be maintained for a sustained period, would correspond to an annualized gross-domestic-product increase of 1.2%. Most of the components comprising the ISM index did poorly in March. The new- orders index ended six months of growth and stood at 46.2, against 52.3 in February and 59.7 in January. The production index came in at 46.3 - the first contraction in 16 months - from 55.4 the month before. The employment index continued to languish, coming in at 42.1 after 42.8 the month before and 47.6 in January. The government will report more comprehensively on the national employment situation on Friday. Most economists expect the report to show a further contraction in nonfarm payrolls. Price pressures continued to mount for manufacturers in March, with a reading of 70.0, compared with the strong 65.5 seen the prior month. Inventories, which can be a leading indicator for factory activity, continued to contract, standing at 42.3, compared with 43.8 in February. The results in the March survey were largely formed in the minds of the purchasing managers who respond by "about March 10," said Mr. Ore, explaining why the March survey was more a reaction to the anticipation of war, rather than its reality. The war against Iraq started on March 19. "When there's a dip like this, there's often a bounceback. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce in April," said Mr. Ore in a telephone conference just after the release of the March report. Noting that both new orders and production fell sharply to virtually the same index level, Mr. Ore stated that "there was nearly a paralysis in March as manufacturers prepared for a war. War dominated thinking, there were almost no other issues." He made a comparison with the experience in 1991, when "the purchasing managers index moved up sharply once the outcome of the war became clear." By contrast, however, the index was depressed "at a very low level around 42 to 43, with recovery coming out of the war," Ore said. "This time, the economy's in much better shape." Indeed, he pointed out that " some businesses will benefit from increased business due to the war. Not all businesses are hurt," Mr. Ore said. On the issue of business confidence and uncertainty, Mr. Ore noted that "while there's high business confidence in the outcome (of the war), there's a great deal of uncertainty about its length." Meanwhile, there is "still a lot of confusion about prices," Mr. Ore said. " Firms are facing increases for their materials, but resistance to price increases." -By Michael S. Derby and John McAuley, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4192; michael.derby@dowjones.com

To: Gottfried who wrote (9229)	4/2/2003 9:19:33 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95639

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