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Politics : Foreign Policy Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (5382)	4/1/2003 10:47:54 PM
From: lorne	Respond to of 15987

Egyptian Economist: Economic Interests Guide the French, Germans, and Russians Toward Baghdad March 27, 2003 No.129 In a report which appeared on Al Jazeera's website, Egyptian economist Khalil Al-'Anani discussed the economic underpinnings of France, Germany, and Russia in their opposition to the war in Iraq, analyzing the positions of each of the countries. The following is a summary of the report[1]: The French Economy France's opposition to the war in Iraq, rather than being based on political considerations, its historical ties with the Arab world, or an attempt to challenge America's role as superpower, is motivated by pure economic interests. Despite France's attempts to portray its stance against the war as a political one, it is difficult not to imagine the economic benefits to France if the war had not occurred. The consequences of war on the weak French economy will be palpable primarily in the oil and commercial sectors. Oil Losses Ten years ago, the French oil company Total/Fina/Elf signed an agreement with Iraq to share oil production in the "Majnoon" and "bin Omar" oil fields upon the termination of the sanctions on Iraq. The Majnoon oil field is located near the Iranian border and is estimated to contain 30 billion barrels of oil. This field alone could meet French consumption needs for 30 years. The bin Omar oil field may contain 6 billion barrels which could produce 440,000 barrels per day (b/d), conceivably rising rapidly to 500,000 b/d. The investments in both fields were estimated at $3.4 billion and the cost of production will be $2 per barrel (which will be one of the cheapest in the world, perhaps second only to Saudi Arabia). Commercial Losses French exports to Iraq have increased sharply in recent years. They were valued at $330 million in 2000, doubled in 2001, and went over $1 billion in 2002. In the most recent international fair held in Baghdad in late 2002, 150 French companies took part. War in Iraq could mean: A spike in oil prices at a time of economic slow-down in the world economy That the post-Saddam regime may not honor its predecessor's agreements with France, particularly those relating to oil exploration and production France is also concerned that, after a war in Iraq, it will fare no better than after the Gulf War in 1991, which brought only a few contracts to France. The German Economy The German economy is going through difficult times with a GDP growth in 2002 of 0.2% and unemployment of 11.3% which translates into 4.06 million unemployed workers. The reduction in taxes collected, coupled with rising unemployment benefits, could drive German deficits above the 3% ceiling established by the European Union, which would invite punitive measures. The war in Iraq could result in two immediate negative consequences for the German economy: first, a decline in German exports which is the main engine for German economic growth; and second, higher oil prices could intensify the German economic slow-down. The Russian Economy Not unlike the case of France, it is difficult to overlook the extent and depth of the economic relations between Russia and Iraq which extend over 40 years. Here, again, economic considerations drive the Russian position vis-à-vis the war on Iraq. Oil Losses Russia produces 7.3 million b/d, which is 9.7% of world production, but it exports only a half of its production. Its reserves are estimated at 48.6 billion b/d, or 4.6% of world reserves (oil reserve figures are considered a state secret in Russia and have never been confirmed). The cost of production is $12 per barrel compared with less than $2 for the Iraqi oil. It is not surprising that Russia covets Iraqi oil only. In addition, there are currently 300 Russian companies which manage the export of Iraqi oil under the "Oil for Food" program. Russia has signed as many as 900 oil contracts with Iraq since 1996. The Russian oil company Lukoil (14% of which is owned by the Russian government) signed an agreement with Iraq for exploration in the western Qurna oil field which may contain as much as 100 billion barrels of oil and is capable of producing 450,000-500,000 b/d. Iraq has also signed a $3.4 billion agreement with Stroitransgaz to develop the gas fields in the western desert. However, unlike France and Germany, Russia is concerned that the rapid increase in oil production by Iraq could bring down the oil prices in the international market, which would have a serious impact on government revenues which rely heavily on oil. Commercial Losses The war in Iraq will have considerable effects on the Russian commercial interests: The loss of business with one of Russia's leading trading partners in the Middle East, particularly in the fields of oil and petrochemical industries The loss of $8 billion of Iraqi debt to the former Soviet Union, which a new regime might not acknowledge. The loss of multi-billion dollar contracts with military and commercial suppliers to Iraq. * Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli is Senior Analyst of MEMRI's Middle East Economic Studies Program. memri.org

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (5382)	4/2/2003 2:10:02 AM
From: KLP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15987

The French people will rue the day they elected Chirac, as I said earlier. He hasn't said a contrary thing to this article, which means he believes it is perfectly fine.... Wish we could take all the buried military heros out of France. They deserve better.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (5382)	4/2/2003 2:11:15 AM
From: KLP	Respond to of 15987

Buster: The Hero Dog....BUSTER - THE DOG OF WAR sky.com A real Dog of War has been hailed the hero of a British Army raid on an Iraqi stronghold. Explosives sniffer dog Buster unearthed a hidden cache of arms from an enemy camp in the southern Iraqi village of Safwan. The Springer Spaniel's find was followed by the arrest of 16 Saddam Hussein supporters. Brown-eyed Buster, who is five, took part in a raid launched by 200 troops. His handler, Sergeant Danny Morgan, 37, of the Royal Army Veterinary Corps said: "The soldiers had found nothing so I unleashed Buster and sent him in. "The rule is that the dog always goes first in case there are booby traps and I was obviously concerned for him as he started his search. Within minutes he became excited in a particular area and I knew he'd discovered something. "The Iraqis we spoke to had denied having any weapons. But Buster found their arms even though they'd hidden them in a wall cavity, covered it with a sheet of tin then pushed a wardrobe in front of it. "I'm very proud of him." Buster's haul included AK47 assault rifles, a pistol, grenades, ammunition and bomb-making equipment. Suitcases full of cash, a suspected stash of heroin and crack cocaine and pro-Saddam Hussein Ba'ath Party literature were also discovered in the buildings used by the mafia-style gangs. Buster races into action Sgt Morgan keeps Buster at his home in Aldershot, Hants, where he doubles as a family pet for his five-year-old daughter Emma and wife Nicki. "I trained him by teaching him to fetch weapons like guns and ammunition instead of sticks and balls," he said. "He loves his job simply because he thinks it's a game and obviously has no idea he's going into dangerous situations. "I end up doing all the worrying because he's not only doing a job out here - he's my best friend. Buster is the only arms and explosives search dog working in Iraq right now and has been worth his weight in gold today. "But my daughter Emma is missing him terribly - even more than she misses me! "She was upset when I went off to war but wept buckets when she was saying goodbye to Buster. She's been sending him more treats than me since we arrived." Buster is so valuable to the army that he has even been given his own protective gear in case of chemical or biological attack. When Scud or gas attack warning sound, he leaps into a special sealed pen equipped with an electric motor that pumps air through a gas mask filter. Last Updated: 22:41 UK, Tuesday April 01, 2003

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (5382)	4/2/2003 9:19:08 AM
From: lorne	Respond to of 15987

Columbia VS. America by Daniel Pipes and Jonathan Calt Harris New York Post April 1, 2003 "U.S. flags are the emblem of the invading war machine in Iraq today. They are the emblem of the occupying power. The only true heroes are those who find ways that help defeat the U.S. military." Those words were spoken last week by Nicholas De Genova, a professor of anthropology and Latin American studies at Columbia University. De Genova went on, in words that will long shame his university, to call on U.S. soldiers to "frag" (i.e., murder) their officers and to wish "for a million Mogadishus," referring to the 1993 ambush in Somalia that left 18 U.S. soldiers dead and 84 wounded. He wants 18 million dead Americans? Columbia's administration distanced itself from De Genova (he "does not in any way represent" the university's views) and other professors criticized him - but his remarks are hardly the rude exception to the usual discourse of the faculty at that university. For one: Tom Paulin, a visiting professor at Columbia this academic year, has stated that Brooklyn-born Jews "should be shot dead" if they live on the West Bank. More broadly, plenty of other Columbia professors share De Genova's venomous feelings for the United States, though they stop short of calling for the deaths of Americans. * Eric Foner, Dewitt Clinton professor of American history, sees the U.S. government as a habitual aggressor: "Our notion of ourselves as a peace-loving republic is flawed. We've used military force against many, many nations, and in very few of those cases were we attacked or threatened with attack." * Edward Said, university professor, calls the U.S. policy in Iraq a "grotesque show" perpetrated by a "small cabal" of unelected individuals who hijacked U.S. policy. He accuses "George Bush and his minions" of hiding their imperialist grab for "oil and hegemony" under a false intent to build democracy and human rights. Said deems Operation Iraqi Freedom "an abuse of human tolerance and human values" waged by an "avenging Judeo-Christian god of war." This war, he says, fits into a larger pattern of America "reducing whole peoples, countries and even continents to ruin by nothing short of holocaust." * Rashid Khalidi, who will hold the Edward Said chair of Middle East Studies starting in the fall, used the term "idiots' consensus" to describe the wide support for reversing Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait and called on his colleagues to combat it. After 9/11, he admonished the media to drop its "hysteria about suicide bombers." * Gary Sick, acting director of the Middle East Institute, alleges that Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in 1980 by conspiring with the Ayatollah Khomeini to keep the U.S. hostages in Iran. He apologizes for the Iranian government (it "has been meticulous in complying with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty") and blames Washington for having "encouraged Iran to proceed" with building nuclear weapons. Sick opposes letting U.S. victims of Iranian-sponsored terrorism collect large damages against Tehran. More generally, he sees the Bush administration as "belligerent" and his fellow Americans as "insufferable." * George Saliba, professor of Arabic and Islamic Science, routinely interrupts his class with political rants, leading one student to observe that it is "continuously insulting" to attend his lectures and another to complain about his course (on the subject of an "Introduction to Islamic Civilization," of all things) degenerating into a forum for railing against "evil America." * Joseph Massad, assistant professor of Modern Arab Politics and Intellectual History, seems to blame every ill in the Arab world on the United States. Poverty results from "the racist and barbaric policies" of the American-dominated International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The absence of democracy is the fault of "ruling autocratic elites and their patron, the United States." Militant Islamic violence results from "U.S. imperialist aggression." Such sentiments coming from leading lights of the Columbia professorate suggest that De Genova fits very well into his institution. He just made the mistake of blurting out the logical conclusion of the anti-Americanism forwarded by some of his colleagues. This self-hatred points to an intellectual crisis at a school long considered one of the country's best. Alumni, parents of students and other friends of the university should first acknowledge this reality, then take steps to fix it. danielpipes.org