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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (30596)	4/1/2003 11:46:47 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Frozen? Look objectively at it, Jay. A major turn of events that will, slowly and steadily, shape the geopolitics, doesn't imply that there will be an immediate impact on the economy that would lend an opportunity to play your hand and capitalize on it. That because the economic world where we all leave are in three layers: 1) National governments of countries that matter. Perhaps 20 countries since the rest don't really matter. The upper layers where Central Bankers operate, and act, based on the inputs they see. 2) Just below the layers 1) where the likes of AG operate, is the layer where economic agents of significant size, i.e., giant corporations that can appoint hired guns to play their case in government, sizeable economic agents that can lobby for their cause by paying money to elect a proxy. Big economic agents that can steer the media to make their case. 3) Here at the bottom are me, you, and a few billions of people -some of them even think that because they put a a piece of paper on a ballot box they matter- that no matter what the guys in the upper layers do, we continue doing our own thing. You know, avoiding that big lump falling on us when those things defecate. Avoiding being throw around by the sheer air flow they create as they move and toss weight around. Tying ourselves to the coconut three to avoid the cyclone-sized wind when they fart, keep a buoy at hand to avoid drawn in a pool of liquid when they piss... well by now you've got the picture. With that in mind, you have to look to what is happening right now. It is happening at the very uppermost layer. Regardless you won't feel the directly, the effects of their actions, then that uppermost layer flush their toilet, the effect is quiet big. Q: To whom does this war benefits? A: To US government appointees trying to get business for their supporters, such as big oil, big construction industry, "defense" industry. That means Layer 2). Q: Should the whole layer 2), including Jay, be at the mercy of a clique fighting for spoils of a war? A: No, of course, not. Here is why: The world -which consists by those billions on layer 3)- hasn't stopped to wait for the adventure's script to play off. People on layer 3) are doing exactly the same thing they were doing before the marching orders were given. Q: Should anyone outside layer 1), -the inner circle of the clique fighting to carve business out of a depleted country- see an opportunity to profit from the status of affairs brought up by the adventure? A: Yes. In your case Gold. Q: Would this localized adventure will be a major turn of events of long duration? A: Layer 1) actions cause major turn of events that will, slowly and steadily, shape the geopolitics. But this doesn't imply that there will be an immediate impact on the economy, where layer 3) operate, that would lend an opportunity to play your hand and capitalize on it.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (30596)	4/2/2003 3:49:01 PM
From: pezz	Respond to of 74559

Today's report bought another trench of PLUM @ 3.60 new average 3.85...