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To: Ilaine who wrote (30624)	4/2/2003 8:24:02 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

SARS: You may want to talk to our very own SI biotech experts: Message 18783821 DAK

To: Ilaine who wrote (30624)	4/2/2003 1:01:26 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

CB, I'm with Jay on this one. Fumento is stringing a line. He is also inaccurate, trying to minimize the situation. There are at least 4% deaths. The deaths lag the infections, quite obviously, because people get onto the infected statistics a week before they get onto the death statistics. Therefore, given the growth rate over the past week or two, there might be up to an 8% death rate. People seem to stay sick for a long time [like weeks]. Apart from those who die, those who live seem to be quite seriously afflicted, struggling by on ventilators with bleeding lungs. Having had pneumonia myself 30 something years ago as a young adult, it's not necessarily like the common cold where you get sick, cough for a week, get better and then have some immunity and no after effects [except a deeper in-tray]. Coughing up blood means the lungs are damaged. My doctor told me the effects I was feeling some weeks or months later would be 'adhesions' meaning scar tissue. Scar tissue isn't good tissue. Having one's lungs full of scar tissue isn't my idea of fun. So even if people don't die, this isn't a garden variety 'flu'. It's a major disease event for those suffering it. Fumento also is manipulating statistics to make Sar Wars look safe. 40 sick people in the USA would mean 1.6 dead. Ignoring the .6 person who is obviously only half dead, the other 1 is obviously well within the statistical variation we'd expect for 40 infections and a death rate of 4% during the growth phase of the disease. The thing which matters is whether the vectors of transmission can be eliminated so that the disease dies out. As AIDS showed, people change behaviour to avoid disaster. With a disease like AIDS, if sufficient vectors for transmission are eliminated, it dies out [unfortunately, along with its victims in many cases]. Smallpox is dead and buried [well, still kept in curious scientist's labs but caged is not bad and we can kill it again if we have to, if it gets out of the cage]. AIDS is a fizzer [in NZ anyway and most of the wealthy countries], but a catastrophe in Africa [non-Islamic Africa - the Moslems are smug because their sexual purity laws stopped the infection from affecting many]. Until the propagation rate drops and the number of cases this month is less than those last month, we should remain scared. I don't believe mainland China that the number of cases have declined. They didn't tell anyone what the hell was going on and seem to be in lying mode for some reason. Typical government authoritarians trying to manipulate the masses' minds with assurances and deception. When governments say don't panic, it's usually a red flag warning that you absolutely should panic [at least take serious action as panic implies irrational acts of confusion and terror]. Fumento is full of it. By having 30% of the population wearing masks, Hong Kong is likely to stymie the bug before it gives a million people bleeding lungs and some of them death. That's worth doing. When the infectious diseases top warrior on the human side goes into battle and comes out dead, the rest of us sensibly get scared. If he, with all his disease control know-how can be killed, that means the rest of us are vulnerable. A happy outcome of the disease control measures is that other infections will be cursing the collateral damage. The common cold will be having more problems than Continental and some diseases will be in bankruptcy, like Air Canada. The Japanese tradition of bowing might be adopted worldwide, instead of slobbering on the other person's lips, or shaking hands, or the Maori breath-mingling hongi [nose pressing]. Traditions are adopted for good reason. Pigs = trichinosis [don't eat pig] Adultery = STDs and unwanted babies and fighting [stoning to death] Lip slobbering = infections [bowing] Stuff like that. Maybe it's time for some new traditions in the age of 6 billion vectors of infection. Mqurice