Good points...the WSJ had a good take on the war in it's Page One report today. In a nutshell, they said that there's evidence that the Republican Guard units are being broken down into 75-150 man company-sized units and dispersed into urban areas to wage urban warfare in Baghdad and to "hide in the sea of people" in rear areas to interdict/interrupt supply and communications. That's what I'd do if I were Abdul. One officer described conflict as being "like fighting in Vietnam". Thus the reports that the "Republican Guard units are at 50% of combat effectiveness" we are getting may be optimistic. We may have destroyed 50%+ of their heavy equipment, but that will be less of a factor in downtown Baghdad. I think we still have 3-6 weeks of tough fighting ahead, and then a protracted guerilla war during the occupation.
online.wsj.com
PAGE ONE
U.S. Hits Republican Guard
In Pivotal Ground Assault
By Greg Jaffe and Carla Anne Robbins in Washington and Helene Cooper in Karbala, Iraq. With contributions from Christopher Cooper in Doha, Qatar and from the Associated Press.
Drive Through Karbala Gap May Open Way
To Baghdad; Fears of Guerrilla Response
The U.S. Army began its much-anticipated drive against Iraq's Republican Guard Tuesday night, as tanks, artillery cannons and attack helicopters clashed with the Republican Guard's Medina Division outside the city of Karbala.
The pivotal attack is designed to cut through Iraqi forces and open a gate for American troops to the outskirts of Baghdad. The Medina Division, aided by reinforcements, has massed tanks in a 12-mile-wide gap between the Euphrates River and a sprawling reservoir that is the entryway to the capital, 50 miles to the northeast. The Army's Third Infantry Division was pounding those troops Tuesday night, with a fusillade of tank fire and artillery shells that lit up a dark night.
Elements of the First Marine Division on Tuesday night also were engaging a second Republican Guard division, the Baghdad Division, deployed southeast of the capital near al Kut. The Pentagon has long hoped to launch simultaneous attacks on the two divisions, but it wasn't clear Tuesday night if the Marines were in position for more than a probing ground action.
If the Army can break through at Karbala, it would be able to drive ahead and approach the capital from the south or the west. It's not known whether the troops will try to push toward the capital or pause after the opening battle, however. While the attack began with a conventional tank battle aimed at the Republican Guard troops guarding the gap, analysts inside the Pentagon and out warned Tuesday that there are signs that the Guard may be planning an unconventional, guerrilla-style defense of the approaches to Baghdad.
The battle at Karbala is the first head-on confrontation between U.S. forces and Republican Guard troops. After stretching out its forces and supply lines in its quick initial forays, the U.S. has spent days consolidating its positions. The Guard units are believed to be better armed and trained than either Iraq's regular army or the militias that have peppered U.S. forces in the south. The confrontation with them follows closely on criticism of the war plan from some senior Army officers, who warned that there may not be enough troops on the ground to launch the ultimate push into Baghdad.
Behind the Iraqi tanks massed in the Karbala gap, more Republican Guard units have arrayed in a way that suggests they don't intend to simply absorb a frontal strike. Instead, U.S. officials say, the Guard units have dispersed into groups of between 75 and 150 soldiers -- not enough to stop a U.S. armored advance, but sufficient to inflict casualties on advancing forces and stage significant rear-guard attacks.
U.S. surveillance has also seen elements from several Iraqi Republican Guard divisions, previously deployed to the north and west of Baghdad, moving southward to join this alignment, primarily in pickup trucks mounted with 50-caliber machine guns. U.S. officials also have expressed concern in recent days that as American forces continue to roll toward the center of Iraqi power, the chances of a chemical weapons attack increase.
Pentagon officials were particularly surprised earlier this week when they found dozens of Republican Guard troops from the Nebuchadnezzar Division, which U.S. officials thought was in northern Iraq, defending a bridge about 10 miles east of Karbala. The troops were armed with rocket-propelled grenades and AK-47 rifles, after apparently deciding to leave behind their tanks and armored vehicles.
As the confrontation outside Karbala began, there were conflicting signals coming from Baghdad about the status of the Iraqi leadership. In a somewhat bizarre incident, Iraqi television announced Tuesday it would broadcast an address by Mr. Hussein, only to show a four-minute statement read by the government's information minister. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld called Mr. Hussein's failure to appear "interesting." Pentagon officials have revived claims in recent days that the Iraqi leader may not have survived the first cruise missile attacks that began the war, but a senior U.S. official said that there was no new information to prove whether the Iraqi leader is alive or dead.
The U.S. Central Command announced Tuesday night that U.S. forces rescued an American P.O.W., 19-year old Army Pfc. Jessica Lynch. Ms. Lynch, a supply clerk, was reported missing March 23 along with 11 other U.S. soldiers from the 507th Maintenance Company, based at Fort Bliss, Texas, after their supply convoy made a wrong turn and was ambushed near Nasiriyah.
U.S. ground units continued search-and-destroy missions around Nasiriyah and Diwaniyah. In Diwaniyah, about 75 miles southeast of Baghdad, U.S. marines fought hundreds of Iraqis, some of whom fired from inside buildings. The marines were assisted on their patrols by a group of about 100 tribesmen, said military spokesman Brig. Gen. Vince Brooks.
In southern Iraq, Iraqi combatants fired Seersucker missiles at British troops there, marking the first time such ordnance -- intended for ships -- has been aimed at targets within the country. The British said the missiles fell wide of their targets and caused no damage.
Iraqi Battle Plans
The apparent decision by Republican Guard reinforcements to deploy with only light vehicles and arms likely reflects their well-founded fear of being tracked and shattered by U.S. bombers and attack planes. Those can target tanks on roads but are far less likely to go after trucks and civilian vehicles. But the lighter forces also could pose a difficult, and potentially deadly, enemy for advancing U.S. troops if the small groups spread out across the battlefield and hide in populated areas.
U.S. troops in the field already are expressing such concern. "In a lot of ways it's like fighting in Vietnam. We would rather take on the Republican Guard in tanks," says Capt. Todd Baughman, a company commander with the Third Infantry Division.
Iraqi leaders Tuesday threatened just the kind of fight the U.S. wants to avoid. In a television interview Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz said, "We know they have air superiority. When they have air superiority, it's best not to fight them in the desert, but to lure them into the cities and towns and to populated areas."
The military has been pounding the Medina and Baghdad divisions, which form the outermost ring of defense south of Baghdad, with air power. In the last four days the Navy and Air Force jets have dropped more than 4,000 bombs in Iraq. About 65% of those satellite- and laser-guided bombs have been directed at the Republican Guard.
Air Force and Navy officials said that airpower has radically degraded the enemy. A defense official said the Republican Guard's Medina division retains only about 30% of its original combat power, and the Baghdad division retains less than 50%. But Army and Marine leaders both concede that these estimates are notoriously unreliable. "A ground guy won't trust those numbers," says one four-star general. "You get a lot of double reporting."
U.S. officials also concede that they don't have a precise fix on how many Iraqi reinforcements, traveling in armored pickup trucks, have moved in and among the Medina divisions tanks. U.S. surveillance planes are normally adept at spotting large convoys of armored vehicles, but last week one JSTARS surveillance plane mistakenly reported a thousand-vehicle armored convoy moving south through a sandstorm to reinforce Republican Guard units. U.S. officials later concluded the convoy had never existed.
Picking out military pickup trucks in the scores of vehicles crisscrossing central Iraq is more difficult. "We're hitting them when we see them, but we aren't always seeing them," said one defense official.
No one expects the Iraqi forces that are dispersing before the Third Infantry to defeat advancing U.S. forces. But if they have enough antitank weapons they could destroy some of the advancing tanks. An even-bigger concern is that these lighter, infantry-like units spread around the battlefield could inflict casualties on the units that will follow behind the Third Infantry after it punches through.
Ideally the U.S. would like to have another armored division traveling behind the Third Infantry. Instead that job will be left to soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division, who are far more vulnerable to unconventional attacks than a heavy armor force. The U.S. is likely to hold back a battalion of tanks from the Third Infantry to support the infantry, said an Army official.
Jordan Foils Iraqi Plot
Jordanian authorities foiled two alleged Iraqi plots, including a plan to contaminate water supplies to Jordanian and U.S. troops on the border with Iraq, sources familiar with details of the investigation told the Associated Press on Tuesday.
Jordanian Information Minister Mohammad Affash Adwan indicated there had been Iraqi attempts to undermine Jordan's security. "This is purely a security matter, which is being investigated, and I can't discuss it further," Mr. Adwan said. Iraqi Embassy spokesman Jawad al-Ali declined comment to the Associated Press.
The alleged water-contamination plot involved five Iraqi diplomats expelled from Jordan on March 23, the sources said. They said the water is pumped from Zarqa, 17 miles northeast of Amman. Zarqa water plants supply distant villages in Jordan's eastern desert, where there are several army and air bases, including one near the Iraqi border where hundreds of U.S. soldiers are manning antimissile batteries.
On Tuesday, Egypt followed Jordan's move to expel Iraqi diplomats by giving Iraqi consul Riyad al-Ani a week to leave the country. Besides his diplomatic responsibilities, Mr. al-Ani is believed to be working for Iraqi intelligence, Egyptian sources and Arab diplomats said.
In an attempt to isolate Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's regime, the U.S. has asked all countries with Iraqi embassies to expel their diplomats. |
