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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (43994)	4/3/2003 11:38:21 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Recent 90% days were March 10 (down), March 17 (up) and March 24 (down). "To formulate our definition of panic selling, we reviewed the daily history of both the price changes and the volume of trading for every stock traded on the New York Stock Exchange over a period of 69 years, from 1933 to present. We broke the volume of trading down into two parts – Upside (buyers) Volume and Downside (sellers) Volume. We also compiled the full and fractional dollars of price change for all NYSE-listed stocks that advanced each day (Points Gained), as well as the full and fractional dollars of price change for all NYSE-listed stocks that declined each day (Points Lost). "... In reviewing these numbers, we found that almost all periods of significant market decline in the past 69 years have contained at least one, and usually more than one, day of panic selling in which Downside Volume equaled 90.0% or more of the total of Upside Volume plus Downside Volume, and Points Lost equaled 90.0% or more of the total of Points Gained plus Points Lost. "... our 69-year record shows that declines containing two or more 90% Downside Days usually persist, on a trend basis, until investors eventually come rushing back in to snap up what they perceive to be the bargains of the decade and, in the process, produce a 90% Upside Day (in which Points Gained equal 90.0% or more of the sum of Points Gained plus Points Lost, and on which Upside Volume equals 90.0% or more of the sum of Upside plus Downside Volume). These two events – panic selling (one or more 90% Downside Days) and panic buying (a 90% Upside Day, or on rare occasions, two back-to-back 80% Upside Days) – produce very powerful probabilities that a major trend reversal has begun..." mta.org FWIW, I've been corresponding with someone who's been trying to automate points gained and lost, but he hasn't gotten it right yet. Will let you know if he does.