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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Condor who wrote (29)	4/4/2003 9:17:30 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

Here's more of the WSJ article: SARS: CONTAINING THE OUTBREAK Top Economist Expects Global Recession in '03 A WALL STREET JOURNAL NEWS ROUNDUP Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Stephen Roach, plans to formally advise clients Friday he is forecasting a world recession in 2003. He previously forecast an annual-growth rate of 2.5%. The sharp downgrade by the high-profile Wall Street economist was spurred mostly by concern the dangerous form of pneumonia spreading around the world will deal yet another blow to growth. Known as severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, the illness now has sickened more than 2,300 people on four continents and claimed at least 80 lives. Most of the cases at this point have occurred in Asia, and most of the deaths have been in China and Hong Kong. Mr. Roach made his prediction on CNNfn, the U.S. financial-news arm of AOL Time Warner Inc.'s CNN. It comes as other economists have been hastily lowering their forecasts for growth, particularly in Asia, because of SARS and the impact of the war in Iraq. SARS is "just another nail on the coffin for the world economy," Mr. Roach said, noting slower global growth will have an impact on U.S. exports, adding, "You've got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found." Hong Kong has been one of the areas hit hardest by SARS. Thursday, Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., said anecdotal evidence shows SARS is having a "major impact" on Hong Kong's economic activity. "We estimate the virus will likely cut some 0.2 to 0.5 of a percentage point from real [gross domestic product] should it last a full month," Mr. Simpfendorfer said. Chinese Tourists Shy Away Among other things, he said, tourist arrivals from China to Hong Kong have dropped in recent days, dealing another blow to retail outlets that are suffering as consumers avoid crowded areas. Almost two-thirds of spending by Chinese tourists goes to consumer goods, he said. Likewise, restaurant sales are down. One of the few bright spots holding up, he added, is the crucial air-cargo sector. Also Thursday, investment bank Merrill Lynch lowered its ranking on Hong Kong to underweight from market-weight, citing a lowering of its economic-output forecast for the city, in the wake of the SARS outbreak, and the hit Hong Kong share prices are bound to take because of weaker sentiment. At the same time, Merrill Lynch said it used the room created by the Hong Kong downgrade to increase its rating on Malaysia to overweight from market-weight. The rerating of Hong Kong followed statements by Merrill's economists Wednesday that the pneumonia outbreak translates into lower domestic consumption in Hong Kong as well as slumping tourist arrivals and could reduce forecast 2003 GDP by 0.6 percentage points to 4%. ING Financial Markets said Thursday it is cutting its forecast for Hong Kong's economic growth by half a percentage point because of the city's SARS problem. It cut its 2003 Hong Kong GDP-growth forecast to 2.5% from 3%, but said the slump in Hong Kong's financial markets offers a buying opportunity, from stocks to fixed-income securities. Ratings agency Fitch Ratings said Thursday it was likely to trim its 3% GDP-growth forecast for Hong Kong this year, to about 2% or 2.5%, providing "this situation is brought under control," said Brian Coulton, senior director for Asian sovereign ratings. <snip> URL for this article: online.wsj.com