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Strategies & Market Trends : Moufassa's Lair -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: moufassa7 who wrote (12458)	4/4/2003 12:40:08 PM
From: moufassa7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13660

Question for Ari Fleisher; Do you ever get tired of answering stupid questions from stupid reporters?

To: moufassa7 who wrote (12458)	4/4/2003 4:33:57 PM
From: James C. Mc Gowan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13660

I was expecting a large dump in this Spring time frame, also, but the War has skewed everything. I expect that the positive developments indicating a short time frame for completion of the regime change will represent an intermediate high for the market. It's apparent that the economic fundamentals are deteriorating rapidly, even the government numbers are poor, and we know they can be pumped and later 'revised downward' for the sake of painting the best picture. We are being levitated by two things: 1. The hope the conflict will end shortly, and with limited loss of life. 2. The constant media hype that 'once the War is over' indecisive employers will start hiring, and battered consumers will spend again, and become 'more confident'. Should the War end soon and quietly, all focus will be bearing down on the economic weakness, and continued weak earnings. I expect, in this event, that the Street hype will really crank up on the 'Second Half Recovery' we have been waiting for for 3 years now. That's really all there is left, although we are hearing the "Fed MAY cut again" mantra more frequently(another 1/2 point cut means discount window will charge the banks 0.25%, not much left before "I Think I'm feeling Japanese, I Really Think So") All in all, it seems to me it's just another opportunity to pump up share prices in advance of the inevitable fallback. The higher we go, the less money the Fed has to expend to keep the market from breaking October lows, and the longer we remain in the Bear market trading ranges. That seems to be the plan from my perspective, because I see no compelling values in this market, like Warren, BWDIK. Trading this market can be hazardous to your wealth, and there are more compelling investments outside of the US now to consider, but the volatility here is a strong drug. James Edit: one other prospect, that may keep things off balance; we could be going from one conflict to the next,e.g. Iran, N. Korea. More War rallies and fallbacks on the realization of the price we'll pay? Could keep things going for quite a while.