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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9281)	4/4/2003 11:52:01 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95622

intraday bpNDX up one to 54%. G.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9281)	4/4/2003 5:37:46 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95622

HiRtS, The last previous crossover of the short term average going above the long term was a very anemic shorting opportunity. I view this as the opposite of a weak top that barely goes higher than the previous top. It is leaving the shorts hoping for a new lower low - I'm thinking their hoping on hope. Net commercials have gone long for the first time since May of 2000. Bids seem to hold up better than in the last 2-3 years - that's pressure of short covering.Bad news doesn't wash out selling - it is met with Buy the Dippers and / or short covering. I think the worm has turned.May not be dynamic - most likely slow - but stocks aren't going back to lows:Cohu @ 16 not 9.78,Amat @ 14 not 10.25. Nothing robust but subtle strength. I suspect a robust release of pent up buying that will pop quickly when regime falls. As in Afghanistan ,troops will be cycled thru Iraq.Some terrorism will surface. The world is about to enter into an era where oil supplies will compete with new supplies coming from a rebuilt Iraq-with higher capacity,a rebuilt Caspean sea basin being pumped thru a now safe Iraq to and thru Turkey.New African oil deposits are very close to actually adding to supply after discovery and development(Exxon has huge project 150 miles outside of the Congo river Delta)just starting to produce. Can you believe what would happen to the rebuilding of Iraq if the Government sold off developmental oil leases to private oil companies (just like we do in the gulf of Mexico).It will provide Billions in instant cash as well as tremendous development of oil wells.Opec power will be greatly diminished when Iraq's oil wealth is privatized by competitive oil companies vs the beaureaucratic "state run (corrupt) oil companies.Ever wonder why Vincente Fox is With global supply keeping oil prices low and stable we must get ove SARS and once again have FUN without terror looming so dominant over our shoulders. We are in an enlightening period where terrorism can no longer hide behind religion.No place on this globe is so far from U.S. that terrorism will not be punished. The tech bubble is being worked out,and worker productivity continues to climb as the miracles of the digital revolution continue to grind underneath both the trough and tops of the economic cycles. The SCE cycle will be anemic this next market top.We need to find new technologies as they emerge.The trough valuations will be viewed with 20/20 hindsight as excellent entry points.The big key here is they are only being made by those who don't mind thinking long term and then have the persitance to stay with the plan. I'm as upbeat as I've ever been - mostly because my account is above water - it has been a long time. I think buy the dip becomes the mantra here.I also think selling early will be more critical and darn near intuitive to get it done right. BWDIK Bob Opec will have less pricing power