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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9296)	4/5/2003 4:37:49 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95622

Weekend Market Analysis (4/5/03) amateur-investors.com In the long run the perception of the US economy by the Institutional Money will be the main driving force to how well the market will perform in the future. The market has already factored in the outcome with Iraq so now the focus shifts back to the US economy and the upcoming earnings reports for the 1st quarter. As far as the major averages the Dow rallied last week after bouncing off its .50 Retracement Level near 7950 (calculated from the March 12th low to the March 21st high) and is back above its 20 Day and 50 Day EMA's. If the Dow continues upward next week look for resistance near its March 21st high and 200 Day EMA (purple line) around the 8500 level. Meanwhile if the Dow reverses to the downside look for initial support where its 20 Day and 50 Day EMA's have converged at near 8100. Since last Summer the Dow has basically been in a trading range between 7200 and 9100. During this time it appears the Dow has taken the shape of an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. If the Dow is going to make a significant move upward over the next year it's going to have to break above the Neckline which has provided strong resistance twice since last Summer just above 9000 (points A and B). The Nasdaq bounced off its .50 Retracement Level near 1340 (calculated from the March 12 low to the March 21st high) this past week but ran into resistance near its 200 Day EMA (purple line) around 1410. If the Nasdaq can break above its March 21st high near 1425 then look for a rally up to the 1470 level which may provide the next area of upside resistance as this is the 2nd Shoulder associated with the previous Head and Shoulders Top pattern. Meanwhile if the Nasdaq trends lower look for initial support in the 1355-1365 range which coincides with its 20 Day (1365) and 50 Day (1355) EMA's. As for the S&P 500 it bounced off its .50 Retracement Level near 843 (calculated from the March 12th low to the March 21st high) last week and rallied back above its 20 Day and 50 Day EMA's. If the S&P 500 continues to trend upward next week look for resistance as it approaches its 200 Day EMA (purple line) near 905. Meanwhile if the S&P 500 begins to trend lower instead look for initial support at the 860 level where its 20 Day and 50 Day EMA's have converged at. In the longer term the S&P 500 has been developing a similar Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern just like the Dow and has been in a trading range between 770 and 960 since last Summer. The S&P 500 has encountered strong resistance at its Neckline near 960. If the S&P 500 is going to make a strong move upward over the next year it will have to break above its Neckline near 960. One thing to watch every year is which Industry Groups are showing signs of strength versus those that aren't. Generally those stocks which are leaders in strong Relative Strength (RS) Industry Groups typically are the best performers. The table below shows what Industry Groups have been performing well this year and which Industry Groups have performed well in prior years. A few things to notice is that each year different Industry Groups tend to perform the best and usually if a specific Industry Group has been strong one year it's rare to see it remain that way the following year. Now there can be some exceptions to this such as in 2000 and 2001 when the Building-Residential/Commercial Group was strong two consecutive years in a row. Top Yearly Performers (2003) Total Return 2003 Communication-Fiber Optic Equip 58.4% Internet-Services 24.0% Medical-Drugs Generic 23.8% Computer-Networks 23.2% Computer-Security 18.0% Computer-Memory Devices 17.8% Transportation-Heavy Trucks/Parts 17.1% Commercial Services-Education 15.4% Household-Audio/Video 13.1% Computer-Graphics 13.0% Top Yearly Performers (2002) Total Return Total Return 2002 2003 Mining-Gold/Silver/Gems 105.3% -20% Medical-HMO's 29.7% 5% Banks-West 23.6% 6% Banks-Northeast 23.2% 6% Financial-Savings & Loan 22.9% 6% Consumer-Misc Products 21.9% -12% Oil&Gas-Canadian Explo/Prod 21.3% 9% Transportation-Trucking 18.7% -4% Banks-Southeast 18.5% 8% Banks-Midwest 17.3% 4% Top Yearly Performers (2001) Total Return Total Return 2001 2002 RETAIL-CONSUMER ELECTRIC 126% -55% RETAIL/WHOLESALE-AUTO PARTS 117% -6% LEISURE-TOYS/GAMES/HOBBY 104% -2% RETAIL/WHOLESALE OFFICE SUPPLIES 87% -10% RETAIL-MISCELLANEOUS 77% -1% FOOD-MEAT 71% -18% COMMERCIAL SERVICES-SECURITY 57% -30% LEISURE-GAMING 55% -3% FOOD-DAIRY 52% 6% BUILDING-RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL 49% 5% Top Yearly Performers (2000) Total Return Total Return 2000 2001 MEDICAL-HOSPITALS 142% -7% MEDICAL-SERVICES 123% 13% OIL&GAS-U S EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION 110% -20% MEDICAL-GENERIC DRUGS 102% 19% ENERGY-ALTERNATIVES 98% -32% MEDICAL-HMO'S 91% -2% BUILDING-RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL 84% 49% MEDICAL-WHOLESALE DRUG/SUPPLIES 79% 12% TOBACCO 77% 28% ELEC-SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENTATION 72% -22% Top Yearly Performers (1999) Total Return Total Return 1999 2000 INTERNET-SOFTWARE 389% -70% INTERNET-NETWORK SERVICES 353% -63% INTERNET-ISP CONTENT 233% -88% TELLECOMMUNICATION-CELLULAR 195% -38% COMPUTER-DESKTOP SOFTWARE 177% -47% TELECOMMUNICATION-EQUIPMENT 173% -32% ELECTRICAL-SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING 161% -3% COMPUTER-ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE 136% -33% MEDIA-CABLE TV 130% -41%