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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maceng2 who wrote (90357)	4/5/2003 5:14:31 PM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Arabs find shine in Saddam's fading star By Alan Philps, Middle East Correspondent (Filed: 01/04/2003) telegraph.co.uk Amid the routine burning of American and British flags, a more worrying symbol for Arab rulers has appeared at a demonstration in the Egyptian port of Alexandria: a coffin bearing the legend "The conscience of the Arab leaders". Under police-enforced rules criticism of the local leader is banned during demonstrations in the Arab world. But few would miss the point that Egypt, as the Arab world's most populous nation and the biggest recipient of US aid money, was being accused of a signal lack of conscience. An Iraqi boy patrols with his AK-47 south-east of Baghdad While the fate of Saddam Hussein may already be sealed, there is no doubt that he is creating himself as a legend which is being lapped up by the Arab masses. Pro-western leaders, such as President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, acceded to the American war plan on the assumption that it would all be over quickly. Mr Mubarak has even complained that the Americans misled him by promising a speedy campaign. The fact that Saddam has survived for 12 days is seen as a colossal success. Before the conflict, his star was falling in the Arab world, with few takers for his propaganda that he intended to liberate Palestine. "But we are so desperate for an Arab hero after all our defeats on the battlefield and 50 years of humiliation that we will even turn that old criminal Saddam into a legend," said an Arab banker. Abdel-Bari Atwan, the often provocative editor of the London Arabic newspaper Al-Quds al-Arabi, said the Iraqi campaign had had an effect on the Arab world similar to the September 11 attacks. The Americans had been surprised to find that the presence of foreign troops had awakened a sense of "patriotism and honour" among the Arabs. "They think that they can humiliate the Arabs all the time, and no one will answer back," he said. The conflict has produced two surprises: the Iraqi army has been able to inflict some damage on the coalition forces, and the Arab satellite media have risen to the challenge of providing an alternative view of the conflict. These are dangerous developments for Arab regimes. The conflict has become "Lebanised"; that is, the damage is being inflicted not by the Iraqi army but by party-led bands who owe their inspiration to the Lebanese Hizbollah's successful guerrilla struggle against the Israeli army. Inspired by Iran, the Hizbollah staged daring but often suicidal raids, accompanied by some sharp propaganda. Such a development will not go down well with the Arab elites, who are generally drawn from their nations' regular armies, which swallow up huge resources but do not win wars. Arab governments must now come to terms with the fact that they have lost control of the information flow. Satellite broadcasters are competing for audience, and this could have an effect on the spread of information akin to the invention of printing in Europe. For the first time since the 1960s, when the Arab world listened transfixed to Cairo's Voice of the Arabs, with its seductive mix of Nasser's revolutionary speeches and sensuous songs, the Arab world feels connected. Some Arab intellectuals are predicting that the regimes that have ruled the region since the 1960s will now melt away in the heat of popular revolt. There is plenty of embarrassment, but no sign yet of crumbling. Edward Said, the Palestinian intellectual, dampened expectations of the discontent on the "Arab street" causing radical changes. "Regimes have a way of staying on, particularly in imperial moments such as this," Prof Said told a Cairo seminar organised by the Al-Ahram Weekly. "The powers that be in the Arab countries seem to be at best able to keep down demonstrations." But Arab governments cannot ignore the fallout of the battle for Iraq. Already the Egyptian government, which fought a bloody but successful war against Islamic militants in the 1980s and 1990s, is forced to work closely with the Muslim Brotherhood to contain demonstrations. The pressure for less reliance on Washington will only grow. The nightmare for the Arab leaders would be if Saddam disappeared like Osama bin Laden, to broadcast his message of struggle from some hidden cave.