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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (70565)	4/6/2003 1:50:29 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 209892

AA/OT ? :Re <it is equally not clear to me which advice is more useful.> I think that depends to a certain extent on ones trading style. I make no bones about it I'm not a short term trader, like most on this board. I like you have a full time job and more. Yet this bear market has done wonders for my portfolio, thanks to golds and the patience I've had in staying on the right side of longterm trends, even when I did not make the best entries. An example of the latter was just late last summer, when I entered tech at the bottom of what most have as a 3, rode it through the 4 and 5 (and added again here) and back up to the A. Now why would a dumbshit do this? Because he used what he learned from boards like this and knew the top of the 4 would more than likely be a rebound for the next A. Instead of capitulating and losing his ass this dumbass made money. So you can see this board helps more than traders. Longterm trend prediction and fundamentals are very important to my trading style, at least in my opinion. Had I not read and read and read I would not have ridden golds from the first bottom to the first top, because I never would have been there. Again EW helped me get out at the top, even though at that time I knew very little about it, and still do. I find that maybe Bob Bronsen (who no longer posts) was the most prescient guy I've yet read. Guys like Roach and Kasriel I rate quite a bit higher than Mauldin (who I used to read religiously). Another fellow I rate very high is McCulley at Pimco. Gross is okay too, but McCulley has more interesting theory, without the bond pump. What I liked about Mauldin for a long time was his ability to explain issues in laymens terms. Being less of a laymen than I was I find I read him less, in part because of his ability to use too many words at times (just like here), and because of his political views. Unlike you perhaps I find political views very important, as they seem to quite regularly influence the person's work. Those that keep politics out of their work usually do a better job. If you look closely Mauldin does not do the latter, at least imho. His PPT article could in fact be a defense against GW, AG and co. I'm not saying it is, just that it could be. As for the PPT I could care less. Whether it is there or not there I still have to deal with the same situation - to put money on the line or not to put money on the line. Republicans, of which Mauldin without a doubt is, do not like the ship going down so to speak on their watch. More and more I find little innuendoes in various Mauldin articles for example, and on various boards, of how all this isn't their fault. Clinton, Rubin and to a lesser extent Greenie seem to be the culprits. What a load of frigging bull. I don't know if I'm a middle of the road person or not - I consider myself such - but I trace the beginnings of the current situation we are in back to Reagan's admin, more than anyone else. From that time forward things have been predominantly driven from the Republican side, and no one (Repubs or Dems) did much but let the good times roll. One only need follow the debt trail. Going forward I'm certainly not going to spend much time listening to a politician (or analyst) explaining how this isn't their party's fault. What I going to look for is someone who has some decent ideas going forward. So far I've seen little of that. Again, a trader may find all this irrelevant. But for me it is not, I think it very important for my style to know where we've been and hopefully where we are headed. I'm as we speak doing a little preparation for a little longer term investing. Longer term may mean a year or so. I think some good ops are in the incubation stage, and I'm using all that I read, plus some EW/TA on longer term charts to assist me. There are a lot of different trading styles, right now mine suits me fine. I find most differences of opinion on these boards are usually somewhat related to that issue. A big advantage as I see it for a trader is that you don't have to pucker up at times, when you make mistakes. Most good traders would stop out, and on a day to day basis know fairly well where they stand. At the present stopping out for an IT trader like me is very dangerous, and I think this bear market is reaming a lot of IT folks who lack the patience to pucker up.