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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Microcaps -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gulo who wrote (49)4/6/2003 4:50:01 PM
From: Ciao  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 817
 
Gulo:

XNS: management is confident for 20%+ top line rev. growth and has indicated a breakout year for earnings in 2004, none of the possible contracts from business in CHINA is accounted in their estimates, with $1.50 net cash/share and EPS of .20+ for the year, risk is low. With a small float and being in the software business, any top line growth will be highly leveraged on the bottom line.

TIM:

1) I believe they did re-negotiate some of their debt
2) yes
3) the offer is for about 14M shares, TIL will only backstop what other shareholders do not tender (I questioned the offer, but was assured this is what was happening as per TIM's corp. secretary Kieth D'Souza.
4) yes
5) haven't been too concerned about that

This company was close to being in receivership, so you can see why at the current price, this is a good entry point.

With respect to the offer to purchase 4M of the 14M shares (non TIL), that will take stock from weak hands. I've seen this effect on 2 stocks I have owned recently (Calian CTY, and Foremost (just before becoming a trust), and it is a major positive on illiquid stocks.

Continue to dig and tell me your final thoughts.



To: Gulo who wrote (49)4/7/2003 8:43:54 PM
From: Ciao  Respond to of 817
 
Gulo;

WRT TIM's tender offer, I got a reply from legal counsel for Safeguard and Becanour,

Essentially, shareholders will be guaranteed at least an acceptance of about 1/6 th of the shares. TIL will tender additional shares on a pro rata basis if all other shareholders do not tender all their shares.

I think the pluses here for the company look pretty good;

1) 3rd party taking an investment of $11M at a significant premium to market price
2) weak hands will be flushed out
3) financial stability for the company after a turnaround year

If things follow the same pattern as they did for CTY and FMO.UN, then TIM should do well. TIM expects to meet at least similar earnings as last year, and taking account the dilution, they should pull in about .25 EPS. So you can see why Becanour is interested in TIM to such an extent as to take up 10M shares at $1.10.

Ciao