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To: Frederick Langford who wrote (86050)	4/6/2003 5:34:13 PM
From: MJ	Respond to of 208838

Your article is most informative. I was thinking about cycles the other day and wondered if there were a larger cycle with the market. Looking first at the four year cycle you noted----- "During most of the 20th century the US stock market has shown a cyclical four-year pattern of three up (bull) years followed by one down (bear) year. The exceptional periods have been 1929-1932, 1973-1974 and 2000-2002." I would place the start of the 1973-74 cycle beginning in 1970-71 having witnessed the first huge declines. I was an OTC Stock Rep in 1970---as the ticker board flicked we saw rapid single day declines in 70-71 wiping out a lot of wealth. (guess this shows my age.) Have you considered longer cycles-----there are about 40 years between the huge declines of 1930 and the 1970 and then about 30 years between 1970 and 2000. Whether or not this fits into a pattern---I don't know. mj