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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (9421)	4/6/2003 9:07:11 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 11447

i'll make a note of what they are at midnight, time to start collecting data. they're still rising as i type this...there goes +10 again...

To: t2 who wrote (9421)	4/6/2003 10:07:46 PM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 11447

This market is way different than '91 IMO and it ain't gonna see the kind of gains like back then...P/E over 30 to start with...much more debts...way low interest rate and only going higher and not much more to 0...no Y2K...no new technologies...this will become like 70's...flat for another 6-10 years...

To: t2 who wrote (9421)	4/7/2003 8:09:24 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 11447

market commentary via Thresholdtrading.com as 4/5/2003 <<RECAP: The short term bullish percents reached the oversold level on February 15 suggesting we were likely setting up for a bounce........those indicators moved to a buy signal on March 1st and remain on a buy signal today. While the short term bullish percents were suggesting a bounce over the past several weeks the longer term NYSE & OTC Bullish percents remained on sell signals. This past week the NYSE Bullish percent reversed to a buy signal while the OTC Bullish percent remains on a sell signal. If that's not blurry enough the relative strength of the NASDAQ stocks has outpaced the blue chippers suggesting they will outperform in up moves or move down less in down moves. One thing about wall street is that if everyone thinks the market will TANK, it will likely rally.........if they think it will rally, its likely to tank. We remain in an 'event driven' market where market fluctuations are based on the outcomes of specific events. The current event is clearly the war with Iraq. If everyone thinks the market will rally once the 'event' (war) is concluded, then they will buy into the event before its conclusion............this 'in effect' does a couple things.......1) it ensures that the demand for stocks is used up by the time the 'event' is complete and 2) makes the prospects of a post-war rally unlikely. We remain in a structural bear market...............for all practical purposes, the bear market for stocks actually began in 1998. Let me explain...............a structural bear market is where the majority of stocks are going down. Market indices can actually go UP in a structural bear market (as they did in 1998-9) even though more stocks are going down than up. This is due to the fact that movement of most indices are controlled by the movement of a few stocks. For example, 40% of the movement of the NASDAQ composite is controlled by 1/2 of 1% of the NASDAQ composite stocks. A structural bear market generally suggests that up moves will likely be limited while moves down will be protracted. Now........lets put it all together........all the bullish percents are on buy signals except for the OTC (NASDAQ stocks) however, we are in a structural bear market where stock implosions are the rule and not the exception. Notwithstanding the fact that the longer term NYSE bullish percent did go to a buy signal last week, the structural bear markets in the past have tended to give small up moves and lower lows. The market has rallied in anticipation of the war (event) and pursuant to the second paragraph a post war rally seems unlikely. We may see some additional upside (SPX 900, INDU 8500 ?) leading into the end of the war, however, the market will likely start focusing on fundamentals (earnings and the economic picture) soon and they are worsening.>>