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To: John Biddle who wrote (33947)4/7/2003 7:58:04 AM
From: John Biddle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 196531
 
Agere rolls dice with DSP for 2G, 2.5G basestations
Darrell Dunn
EBN, (04/07/2003 12:01 AM EST)

ebnonline.com

While much of the DSP world has turned its attention to emerging 3G cellular basestations, Agere Systems Inc. has begun producing a DSP aimed at 2G and 2.5G networks, which the company believes will continue to drive demand over the next few years.

The company said its DSP16411 is the first device to be made using a low-k dielectric, 0.13-micron process, at foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd., demonstrating Agere's ability to continue innovating under a fabless business model first announced in January 2002.

The introduction raises questions, however, about Agere's long-term presence in the 3G infrastructure market and the viability of the StarCore DSP architecture co-developed by Agere and Motorola Inc.'s Semiconductor Products Sector, analysts said.

"We want to continue to extend the life of the 2G and 2.5G generation of basestations," said Steve Hollaneis, director of device technology at Agere in Allentown, Pa.

"While growth in this market is not dynamic, it's still a healthy business," Hollaneis said. "People are taking this opportunity to retool their existing infrastructure and upgrade what they already have in-house to take advantage of the lower operating costs, lower power usage, and higher performance, without having to reconfigure their entire infrastructure."

The DSP16411 is a dual-core device compatible with the company's prior DSP16410, which has been used extensively in 2G base-stations. The new DSP increases horsepower from 180MHz to 286MHz, while reducing power consumption by 20%, Hollaneis said. Lucent Technologies Inc. is the first announced customer.

"Agere is certainly aware of where most of the money is being spent right now," said Will Strauss, an analyst at Forward Concepts Co., Tempe, Ariz. "When someone is upgrading their systems, the path of least resistance is a better version of the same chip you've got."

Jeff Bier, an analyst at Berkeley Design Technology Inc., Berkeley, Calif., contended the success of the DSP16411 is crucial if Agere is to prove it can compete as a fabless company.

"The foundries have caught up with the big boys as far as the sophistication of their processes," Bier said. "They are no longer a generation behind, and considering the investment required to bring up your own fabs, and the risks associated, I think Agere can be competitive. It makes sense to put the R&D dollars into their architectures and chip designs rather than production."

Agere not alone

Strauss said that while it is impressive that Agere has been able to produce low-k on a 0.13-micron process, it does not necessarily put the company at the forefront of DSP process technology.

Tom Engibous, chairman, president, and chief executive of Texas Instruments Inc., speaking at the Global Signal Processing Expo in Dallas last week, said TI has shipped samples of a 90nm-based digital baseband for cellular handsets, and three of its own fabs are now in volume production with 0.13-micron processes.

Hollaneis said Agere has shipped more than 1.4 million DSP16410s since its introduction three years ago, and the heavy demand for expansion of existing cellular infrastructure bodes well for future sales of the DSP16411.

According to research firm EMC, Walton on Thames, England, there will be more than 100 million new subscribers to 2G and 2.5G GSM services each year for the next four years, while new subscribers for 3G wideband CDMA will remain less than 10 million annually.

At risk?

But Strauss said Agere runs a risk by concentrating development efforts on 2.5G while competitors such as TI, Motorola, and Analog Devices Inc. have spent the past year working to secure design wins for early installations of 3G.

By continuing to use its Harvard architecture-based DSP16000 family for new development, and not its more advanced VLIW-based StarCore, Agere may eventually be left behind, according to Strauss.

"You have to wonder if they value the StarCore property very much," Strauss said. "It certainly is designed to be a much higher-performance architecture than the DSP16000. They've got to be looking at some solution for 3G, or they will be locked out."

Three standard products have been announced based on the StarCore architecture: Agere's StarPro2000 and Motorola's MSC8101 and MSC8102, both of which are now in production after early problems with low yields, according to Strauss.

The StarPro2000 was originally targeted at high-end infrastructure applications, but John Sweeney, DSP applications manager at Agere, said that while the device "never went into full-scale production, StarCore as IP remains available for an ASIC/DSP SoC targeted at the second round of 3G applications."

Berkeley Design's Bier said it is difficult to gauge exactly how Agere's 3G infrastructure strategy will eventually emerge.

"Overall, Agere has such a low profile in their DSP efforts that we have almost zero information from them," Bier said.