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Biotech / Medical : T/FIF, a New Plateau -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (1938)	4/7/2003 3:53:55 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2243

>>there's further complexity to the business plan.<< I suppose there's more leverage than there used to be given the small market cap now, but let's see, what's left . . . they don't expect significant revenue from their diagnostic tests. They have made a few pennies here and there outlicensing their nuclear transfer technology. They're still working on their liver cell tox program, but that also looks like small potatoes. Stem cell IP in neural, islet, cardiomyocyte area. Might be able to outlicense their work in osteoporosis and osteoarthritis, but it looks the work there stopped due to restructuring. They received what development funding they are going to get for GERN 163, but could still partner out the non Asian rights for further funding. Vaccine program could also be partnered. But both are early, and results don't warrant partnering or financing at this stage. In a couple of years, maybe, which is about when they'll run out of dough. Additional complexity without that much near term upside, IMO. In the mean time, unless they have something up their sleeve for ASCO, I do not see significant drivers after this spate of recent news and the ensuing run up. And, Allan, with all due respect . . . your chart, starting back in 1999, contains a lot of bubble data in it. I don't expect to see that kind of sustained mania for a long time. What happens if you start the data from the beginning of 2001? Anyhow, since I keep missing my short opportunities on this one, I wish T/FIF and Geron longs good luck with it. Another bounce over $6.5, and I'll take a swing at it unless it does so on really important news. But I will be working on a shorter time frame, expecting to cover in the summer. I guess I've said my piece now, here. I'll still follow it in the short portfolio. Cheers, Tuck