To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6141 ) 4/8/2003 11:25:02 PM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 12229 *** Sar Wars *** <As of today, 2671 SARS cases with 103 deaths have been reported from 17 countries. This represents an increase of 70 cases and 5 deaths when compared with yesterday. The new deaths were reported in Canada (1), Hong Kong SAR (2), and Singapore (2). The additional cases were reported in Canada (1), China (11), Hong Kong SAR (45), France (1), Singapore (7), and the United States (7). Taiwan, China removed 2 cases from the list. > We've reached the first 100 dead, including some of our champion infection fighters. That was a rapid increase. The bug will be mutating faster now that 1000s of people are infected, looking for avenues to improve it's propagation talents. It's almost under control, but not quite. There seem to be just a few links managing to escape quarantine and keep the propagation programme going. Cumulative deaths. Bad counting in the early days due to poor reporting from China. x = 10 dead, rounded to the nearest 10. 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ..2 Apr xxxxx ..9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx [103 already, on 8 April] 16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [my guess = 180, increased by 50 from a couple of days ago] Of those infected [excluding the USA where nobody seems to die], about 7% seem to die. With 2700 cumulative cases now observed, that would mean 189 deaths, which take something like a week to happen after SARS is first diagnosed. Given that there have been very extensive efforts to curb the bug over the past month in Hong Kong, but without success, nobody should look at the graph with equanimity. As numbers increase, the battle will increasingly be fought individually by infected populations. There won't be much kissing under the mistletoe come Xmas. Kissing scenes in movies will be dropped as anachronisms. People will recoil rather than enjoy the vicarious thrill of watching on-screen pashing. Japanese-style bowing in greeting will become the norm. Maori hongis will go the way of the dodo. Hongi = nose pressing and breath mingling. Whoever patents a vaccine should make a lot of money. The graph is how Globalstar handset sales were supposed to go. Sars has more talent than CDMA service providers. Mqurice