Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (299)	4/7/2003 4:39:57 PM
From: Londo	Respond to of 666

I won't touch EBAY. If I wanted to commit financial suicide, I'd start trading that stock. Personally, one of my Iraq reconstruction plays is WGII - they recently came out of Chapter 11 with all of their debt extingiushed and quite a bit of cash on their balance sheet. They're also very cash flow positive, and with the restructuring, their company is worth more than I think it's being valued for right now (simply due to the lost credibility for getting into Chapter 11 in the first place). Something else that makes this play rather nice is that they have a bunch of warrants outstanding, and the head guy has quite a few of them exercisable at around 24/28/32 (read the 10-K for full details), which gives him a good incentive to get the stock price up so he can exercise and dump. Of course, the trick is dumping with him. Normally dilutive warrants should be a drag on the stock price, but I think they structured the incentive to get the stock up perfectly. But single-company risk is the reason why I trade index futures - don't have to worry about the micro picture, only the macro one counts. Euro at 1.0672 as I speak.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (299)	4/7/2003 5:41:49 PM
From: Londo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 666

Time to test the "spike" theory. I see major reversal indicactions everywhere (as you pointed out), such as the S&P, 30-year, Euro, etc.. This day reminds me of the first day in December 2002 when the S&P hit 950 and then slided down for the rest of the day.. and we all know what happened then. So I've got a short on for ES at 880 and 884, stop loss at 890. If the ES goes to 890, chances are today was just an abberation anyway, and I'm willing the risk that much of my portfolio to catch a ride down to 825-840. Interest rates are a little more tougher to predict, I think we'll see the 30Y down to a 4.75% yield.. in fact, if the deflation scenario (see JAPAN) works, bond futures might be the best buy for the next three years as well.