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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (9321)	4/7/2003 10:44:20 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95617

Bob, the futures traders must believe it's true. But all MSNBC is saying is... April 8 — A U.S. Air Force warplane dropped four enormous bombs on a residential complex where “extremely reliable” intelligence indicated that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and one or both of his two sons were attending a meeting, senior administration officials told NBC News late Monday. The sources would not rule out the possibility that Saddam could have moved before the bomber struck, but they said it was likely that he and his sons were dead. msnbc.com

To: robert b furman who wrote (9321)	4/8/2003 12:12:25 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95617

From Briefing.com: 11:59AM Nasdaq holds modestly negative : -- Technical -- Index has lifted somewhat of its session lows. From current levels, the index faces initial resistance at 1390 to 1392, followed by more notable overhead at 1400. To the downside, continue to look for initial support in the range of 1378 to 1380, followed by a more important floor at 1367. For a more detailed account of the current technical outlook, please click here. 11:47AM QLGC finds bid following positive EMC guidance 38.04 -0.58: 11:44AM EMC Corp issues Q1 guidance (EMC) 7.76 -0.13: Co expects Q1 EPS to be "at least" $0.01 on $1.35-$1.4 bln in revs, vs consensus of $0.01 and $1.38 bln. 11:01AM Market bounces as Saddam-taken-out rumor finds second wind : Not sure what is behind the sudden reappearance of this rumor in the market over the past 15 minutes. 10:40AM Broadcom doldrums viewed as opportunity for MRVL (MRVL) 20.62 -1.03: A Sterling analyst believes the recent BRCM turmoil to be an incremental positive for MRVL. In the morning note, he highlights recent departures by key senior executives within the co's Serverworks division as signaling internal "turmoil" and suggests vulnerabilities within key product areas for BRCM such as cable modems, DSL and WLAN in light of MRVL's internal development. 10:38AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : Group is one of the worst performers today following RFMD -10.5% and MCHP -9.8% warnings. The sector index (SOX 303 -3.8%) recently tested support at 302 and held but sustained follow through beyond 306 and 308 are needed to help improve the intraday tone. Failure exposes next support at 299 with the late March low at 295.99. For the Semi HOLDRS resistances are at 24.04 and 24.15 with supports at 23.65 (bottom of April 02 gap) and 23.31 in front of the March 31 low at 23.09. Weighing on the index are: TXN -5.7%, NSM -5.6%, MXIM -5.4%, LSCC -3.5%, AMAT -3.1%, NVLS -3.5%. 10:27AM QLGC -2.9% pressured by chatter that quarter may be at risk 37.51 -1.11: For what it's worth, this is a rumor that seems to circulate every quarter with this heavily shorted stock. 10:15AM Cree: Needham positive after industry checks (CREE) 23.19 -0.47: Firm says it is feeling stronger about CREE as a result of industry checks that indicate co will be increasing capacity for HBLED products (75% of sales) by at least 14% sequentially during the MarQ, and should continue increasing capacity throughout the yr resulting in an 84% increase yr/yr; believes there is upside to estimates for next qtr. Firm raising its FY03 and FY04 estimates above consensus based on confidence that CREE will be increasing capacity to satisfy demand and will continue preserving margins. 10:00AM Qualcomm slips through Feb low of $32.63, but holds near area (QCOM) 32.62 -1.57: -- Update -- Issue pulled back through the $32.63 Feb low, but did not do so aggressively. Appears that longs encouraged by attempt to bounce near this level. Intraday low is $32.50. 9:53AM Celestica: UBS cautious ahead of quarter (CLS) 11.00 -0.02: UBS believes that much like the rest of the EMS sector, co's results and guidance on April 15 will indicate pricing pressure and weak end mkts during Q1 and continuing into Q2. 9:47AM Intersil testing support (ISIL) 15.13 -0.41: -- Technical -- On the defensive in opening trade with the issue edging slightly below the bottom of its six day trading range and its 50 day sma at 15.15 before edging off the low. A continued stabilization above this area is needed to bolster the short term bias. Failure leaves the door open to the further downside probes with next supports at 15 and 14.80. 9:08AM Skyworks downgraded at ThinkEquity (SWKS) 6.03: ThinkEquity downgrades to Equal-Weight from Overweight following RFMD's warning; while SWKS has been able to grow its gross margin over the past few qtrs, much of this has been born out of the consolidation of the Alpha and Conexant parts into a more integrated whole; however, with industry-wide ASP pressure, the co may face similar pressure in the near-term to its closest competitor RFMD. 8:30AM Qualcomm estimates cut at Soundview (QCOM) 34.19: Soundview cuts their FY03 est to $1.32 from $1.34 (below consensus of $1.40), as evidence mounts that the CDMA mkt is suffering from weakness in Asia; in addition, QCOM is wrestling with issues related to NOK's re-entry into the CDMA handset mkt, and long-standing concerns about CDMA chip oversupply and demand problems in India appear to be closer to fruition now; cuts price target to $36 from $38. 7:47AM Broadcom upped to Neutral from Reduce at UBS; target $13 (BRCM) 13.49: Firm believes that BRCM continues to make steady progress in ramping new business opportunities such as DOCSIS 2.0 cable modem, ADSL broadband access and digital set top box on a chip. UBS is raising its MarQ sequential growth assumption to 6% from 3%, while taking down its 2004 growth assumption to 5% from 12%. The new estimates take into consideration greater than previously expected near-term wireless LAN strength, and higher 2004 Gigabit Ethernet and Server System I/O pressures. Firm reduces CY03 est to $0.18 from $0.20 and CY04 to $0.30 from $0.40. However, raises price target to $13 from $12. Owing to the sharp correction BRCM has suffered as a result of recent mgmt departures, UBS believes current valuation levels adequately reflect the near-term risks and uncertainties. 7:18AM Marvell downgraded at UBS; target $15 (MRVL) 21.63: UBS Warburg downgrades to Reduce from Neutral and cuts their price target to $15 from $20; move is based on their belief that previous intermediate-term assumptions overstated the growth potential from HDD and Gigabit Ethernet product ramps and understates the risk factors that will arise from INTC-based competition at the 90 nanometer process node; expects the co to make its April quarterly results of 7% sequential rev growth, yet believes it could ultimately fall short of consensus of $0.80 in EPS in FY04. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+CLS+CREE+EMC+INTC+ISIL+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MCHP+MOT+MRVL+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+QCOM+QLGC+SWKS+TER+TXN+XLNX+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+^VIX+^VXN+^STI.N+^STI.O+SMH&d=t Bob we may be moving ever closer to a sell the news market. Yesterday looks like it may have been a real top. I'm not sure though. RtS

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