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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (16681)	4/8/2003 6:25:58 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Mauldin does not take bold stands I do Reaaallly. <g> My own belief is that the last classic PPT intervention was to terminate last summer's plunge. Right after that Greenspan (Bernake) said "Whatever it takes". Since the PPT has always worked through da Boyz, what I believe happened after last summer, is that the PPT reached an "understanding" with da Boyz. With the "backing" of the PPT, da Boyz can be much more aggressive in lighting short burning fires. JMO lurqer

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (16681)	4/8/2003 7:22:01 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

His classic was calling Peter Fisher "Briliant" for eliminating the 30 yr. Said it would turn the economy around or similar nonsense.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (16681)	4/9/2003 10:21:05 AM
From: Mannie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Fed refining emergency rescue plan April 8, 2003 By Martin Crutsinger WASHINGTON--Confronting new fears of recession, the Federal Reserve is refining an emergency economic rescue plan that includes further interest rate cuts and billions of dollars in extra cash for the banking system. The Fed's effort would be aimed at pulling the country out of a nosedive that has seen 465,000 jobs evaporate in just the past two months, raising fears among economists that the weak recovery from the 2001 recession is in danger of stalling out altogether. ''Clearly, the Fed is in uncharted territory,'' said economist David Jones. ''I think they will try some experimental moves.'' One key element hasn't been used successfully in a half-century. Based on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials, the central bank is expected to move beyond its traditional buying and selling of short-term Treasury securities held by banks to the direct purchase of longer-term securities in an effort to influence long-term interest rates. Also, Fed officials have indicated they are prepared in the event of an unexpected shock to the system to lend massive amounts of money directly to commercial banks to make sure financial markets do not freeze up. As a third policy option, Fed officials have indicated they would explicitly state that if the federal funds rate is moved below its current 1.25 percent, it probably will stay at the lower level as long as needed to get the economy on its feet--which would help investors' worries about a sudden jump in interest rates down the road. The fact that Fed officials have been so open in discussing these options underscores the need the central bank sees to restore investor confidence that has been shaken by the fact that the Fed's aggressive two-year campaign to cut short-term rates has yet to produce a sustainable economic recovery. The Fed's target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge for overnight loans, is now at a 41-year low of 1.25 percent. ''The Fed is trying to buck up fragile confidence,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. ''They know that everyone is asking the question: What can be done if the U.S. economy slides back into a recession and it ignites a deflationary cycle?'' Greenspan in a speech in December in New York noted that the Fed from 1942 to 1951, as part of an agreement with the White House, successfully capped long-term Treasury yields at 2.5 percent as a way to hold down borrowing costs to finance World War II. However, private economists note that a later Fed effort dubbed ''Operation Twist''--in which the central bank sold short-term Treasury securities and bought long-term securities in the early 1960s in an effort to influence rates at both ends of the yield curve--was judged to be a failure because the central bank did not make the transactions in large enough amounts. ''If you want to produce results, you have to convince markets that you are serious and will do whatever it takes to alter the rate structure,'' said former Fed board member Lyle Gramley. The Fed made just such a massive response on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after the terrorist attacks, when it lent a record $46 billion to banks in a single day to keep the financial system functioning. Fed officials have indicated their battle plan has been influenced heavily by reviewing the mistakes made by the Bank of Japan, which has been unable to jump-start that country's economy for more than a decade despite driving short-term interest rates to zero. Fed officials believe the Bank of Japan's biggest mistake was being slow to respond after that country's real estate bubble burst in the late 1980s. Vincent Reinhart, the Fed's top monetary policy staffer, told an economic conference recently that the Fed is striving to act pre-emptively before falling prices become entrenched. ''The best policy for dealing with deflation is to avoid it strenuously by acting pre-emptively,'' he said. Because of this, some economists believe the Fed will not wait until its May 6 meeting to put its plan into effect, opting to cut the federal funds rate through an emergency conference call, possibly as soon as this week. Other analysts argue that the Fed probably will wait, hoping that the favorable tide of the war will bolster markets in coming weeks and restore confidence. ''I think they will hold off cutting rates again to see if an early, successful conclusion to the war has the desired effect everybody is hoping it will have,'' Zandi said. AP

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (16681)	4/9/2003 10:31:21 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Expect little help from Europe. news.bbc.co.uk lurqer

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (16681)	4/9/2003 12:52:59 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

IMF cuts global growth outlook International Monetary Fund drops forecast to 3.2% from 3.7%, cites German, U.S. deficits. April 9, 2003: 9:47 AM EDT PARIS (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2003 global growth forecast to 3.2 percent from 3.7 percent due to the Iraq war and stock market declines, and is particularly worried about weak German growth. An extract of the IMF's semi-annual World Economic Outlook obtained Wednesday ahead of its scheduled release says the relatively robust forecast is based on the assumption of oil prices averaging $31 per barrel and dynamic growth in Asia and transition countries. "... the global recovery is expected to continue during 2003, albeit at a relatively subdued pace, with GDP growth in the major currency areas remaining below potential until the end of the year," the outlook says. The IMF's projections are based on the assumption that uncertainties surrounding the Iraq conflict are "broadly resolved" in the near term, with little spillover outside the region, and that the global economic impact is limited, the outlook says. Its release coincided with the collapse of Saddam Hussein's rule in Baghdad Wednesday as Iraqis cheered U.S. Marines driving through the east of the city and looters moved in. The IMF also lowered projected U.S. growth to 2.2 percent from 2.6 percent, but says the United States is likely to continue to lead the global recovery. However, risks to U.S. growth are posed by the country's budget deficit, which could exceed 5 percent of GDP if the war continues, as well as a slump in stock markets and the high current account deficit, according to the forecast. The IMF also cut its euro zone growth forecast to 1.1 percent from 2.3 percent as a result of weak domestic demand, fiscal policy tightening and the euro's appreciation, the outlook says. "The situation in Germany, where GDP growth is expected to be well under 1 percent for the third year running and strains in the financial sector are becoming increasingly apparent, is of particular concern," the report says. The IMF has cut its forecast for Germany to 0.5 percent from last September's 2.0 percent, cut its forecast for France to 1.2 percent from 2.3 percent, and for Italy to 1.1 percent from 2.3 percent. Japan was lowered to 0.8 percent from 1.1 percent. The United Kingdom forecast was lowered to 2.0 percent from 2.4 percent. The IMF cut its prediction for Canada's 2003 GDP growth to 2.8 percent from 3.4 percent. The forecast for Russia fell to 4.0 percent from 4.9 percent. The head of the International Monetary Fund urged Europe and Japan Tuesday to do more to reinvigorate prospects. IMF Managing Director Horst Koehler said the global economy in 2003 would expand by "a bit more than last year [when growth came in at 3 percent] but not a lot more." "There is a risk of a worse outcome. Nobody can rule it out," he said, noting it was "realistic that a moderate recovery is the most likely development." Koehler said the global economic recovery, assuming a short war in Iraq, would pick up in the second half of this year but that lingering uncertainty about terrorism means that the world's major economies need "really to accelerate reforms." He also blamed Europe and Japan for not doing more to quicken needed reforms over the past year.