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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Doyle who wrote (13)	4/9/2003 10:09:06 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 4904

there are some who think 18 dollar oil is very unlikely, and 40+ more the norm over the coming years. chinese oil property acquisitions tell part of that story, the other being a matter of supply... i.e. the hubert's peak proponents who believe supply is now irrevocably in a down direction. intermediate inflation by pumping cannot change such a fundimental fact... indeed, in the end only hasten the result which follows. not speaking for heinz btw. just throwing it out.

To: John Doyle who wrote (13)	4/10/2003 2:32:50 AM
From: Andy Thomas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4904

if oil goes to - and stays for awhile - at $18 per barrel will it be the end of putin in russia? my understanding was that russian oil extraction costs are $25...

To: John Doyle who wrote (13)	4/16/2003 11:18:10 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4904

well, Japan specifically has a chance to hit the bottom sooner rather than later, now that the downturn has become synchronized globally. but i agree that we should never underestimate their ability to continue to 'muddle through'. as for OPEC having lost pricing power, i'm not so sure about that. the major non-OPEC fields in the North Sea, Norway and Venezuela all have passed their respective Hubbert peaks, and in the case of Norway for instance, the projected decline in output over the next decade is massive. it stands to reason that over time, OPEC will command an ever bigger share of the oil market, Iraq notwithstanding. and it is by no means assured that Iraq's oil will begin to flow freely anytime soon. i wouldn't be surprised if the recent descent into anarchy becomes the norm there, similar to Afghanistan. too many factions are vying for power in Iraq, and can be expected to begin fighting each other as soon as the occupation force is gone, or perhaps even while it is still there.