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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (9361)	4/9/2003 10:52:56 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95657

Hi Mike, I agree. I believe the key here is financial strength - I'm not worried so much about losses ,but I think the losses should be less than the companies depreciation. If a compamies loss is less than the depreciation at a market trough then they are cash floww positive and can survive anything trough. The next judgement call is are they gaining market share - are they the survivor.If so,and they have positive cash floe then they can implement buyouts at the bottom.These acquisition can buy firms .10 on the dollar and position themselves for exponential growth during the next cycle.This is following Amat's successful model - it also reinforces the brilliance of the merger between KLA and Tencor in 98. Instead of fighting and reducing margins - join and become dominant. I'm very comfortable holding and accumulating more of these SCE stocks at trough values - the longer they take the more I accumulate. The longer it takes the fewer weak sisters exists.It simplifies the selection process,as the weak players enter liquidation or if in the eyes of the pros their R&D has created value they will be merged. It is a purging of the weak and a consolidation of the strong. I do firmly believe that the industry as a whole has great growth in its future.Theu must first outlive the overcapacity they have built. A strong recovery will minimize this a wek recovery will delay this. At any event I will be patient.It pays to be so. So buy on any final shakeout and quietly accumulate the value. The powerful victory of American forces with high technology can draw a parallel analogy to American industry embracing digital technology to the socialistic and slow to change European industries that don't embrace IT and its productive benefits. In the battlefield of business they will become also ran powers - the rest are just word and propaganda. Our technology will once again be sought after as it will be required to remain competitive. As the U.S. leads other economies out of this recession/slowdown - they will realize it become imperative to adopt our technological upgrades as well. This will begin the next cycle.When that is apparent the first 65-75% increase will have already occurred. JMHO Good to hear from you. Bob