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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (31188)	4/10/2003 2:24:17 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay - I am guessing that the bad publicity from SARS and the nasty impact on March & April revenues may make stock prices go lower even as the epidemic is contained. SO I am waiting before buying in. Sold Some CHN a China Closed end fund, last week. This fun often sells at a discount to NAV, which provides an edge in safety if it drops and so extra 'kick' as the fund starts rising.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (31188)	4/10/2003 6:05:44 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

i too own Shangri-La, although i reduced my position by 75% at higher levels. i think there is still considerable downside to HK/China names. anything travel related just looks like a crap shoot right now to me. the problem is, nobody knows how long it will take to control SARS. in the meantime, equity could be wiped out at leveraged operators. how long does the equity hold out if occupancy is at 10%? having said that, i think there could be some great opportunities if the SARS decline lasts long enough to cause a lot of BKs and really tank the market. possibly a true blood in the streets opportunity in the making. but a 20-25% haircut from recent highs is not exactly "blood in the streets" in my book. i was able to pick up Shangri-La for cheaper than yesterday's close in late September.