To: KonKilo who wrote (91686 ) 4/10/2003 2:48:58 AM From: Nadine Carroll Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500 Analysis, By Barry Rubin: he old Middle East comes crashing down Much of the old Middle East not all, but a considerable part lies today as ruined as Saddam Hussein's statues. Once again, the main claims and ideas by which the region is explained and governed have crashed down with surprising ease. The American army is in Baghdad, cheered by Iraq's people at the same moment as it is booed by so many of the Arabs who never suffered under Saddam's lash. Do not forget this day too soon. Of course, this is the Middle East and things will go wrong, victories will tarnish, new lies and rationalizations will soon appear. And yet, let it be clear: Everything the supporters of this war predicted has come true; everything their critics said has been shown to be false. Everything the advocates of an alternative way of understanding the region has proven true, while everything the champions of the Old Middle East have asserted is dead wrong. As dead as hundreds of thousands of victims of Iraq's dictatorship who have been ignored in the theories, complaints, and even the reports of those daring to call themselves "friends" of the Arab people. In the short run, the Arab world did not rise to Saddam's aid. There have been no significant terrorist attacks. The mythical Arab street has remained reasonably quiet. The Iraqi armed forces did collapse quickly. The people did not love their dictator nor did they fight to keep on their chains. The terrorist training camps and torture chambers stand revealed to the world, just as the unconventional weapons will be in the days to come. The masses did greet the British and American forces. The stories of US plans gone wrong, heavy resistance, American defeats, deliberate Western brutality, nationalist devotion to the tyrant, and far more were wrong, wrong, wrong. The European governments and demonstrators who demanded that Saddam be allowed to misrule and oppress for many more years have been shown to be mistaken. Will those who misunderstood and misrepresented acknowledge their mistakes? A French friend told me some weeks ago that when the children's prisons of the regime were opened up to show its total degradation, the people of France 33 percent of whom advocated Saddam's victory in a recent poll would demand their government explain how it protected such an evil dictatorship. Will that happen now? Yet no less important are the long-term myths that have been exposed for the falsehoods that they are: That the Arab world stands always and everywhere united against the West in some practical way. Wrong. That the words of Arab newspapers and television networks reflect some powerful force that will be unleashed in the real political world. Wrong. That anti-Western sentiment, pan-Arab nationalism, and hatred of Israel will determine Arab behavior on every significant issue. Wrong. That the Arab-Israeli conflict is the only issue of any importance and it shapes all other considerations in the region. Wrong. What could be more ironic than the fact that the Iraqi Baath party gave out membership certificates whose main message was to fight to "liberate" Palestine, a tireless effort to distract its people from liberating themselves? That the only way for the West to deal with Middle Eastern dictators is to appease them. Wrong. That nothing can be done to fight the sponsors of terrorism, aggression, and dictatorship because of the nature of the Arab world. Wrong. This does not mean, of course, that everything will go smoothly now. The Iraqis want a better life and they want to govern themselves. Eventually, they will object to long-term governance by the West. A transfer of power must take place in a reasonable time. Yet this problem can be handled if US policy is handled with as much sense as it has been up until now. As important as the specific issue of Iraq is going to be, there is a genuine question as to whether and to what extent this marks a new era. Will the thudding crash of Saddam's statues have anywhere near the wider effect the fall of Communist statues in the USSR and Eastern Europe had a decade ago? In a sense, this could be just one more partial disappointment, as so many great days in modern Middle East history have been. From the 1967 Arab-Israeli war to the 1991 victory in Kuwait, the forces of reaction have been defeated again and again. Yet no single demonstration or even the cumulative proof of decades on the need for deep and thorough-going change in the region's thinking and institutions has succeeded in bringing down the psychological and political iron curtain of the Middle East. Still, the hefty weight of reality has again and again sought to pound the lesson home. Will this time be the decisive blow? One must doubt, but one can hope.jpost.com