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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (16854)	4/10/2003 5:02:20 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

take a quick look at Soviet Union and Yugoslavia I saw an insightful interview with Dickey from Newsweek this guy is brilliant last interview I saw was a week ago he mentioned we are winning the war but we are badly losing the public opinion campaign we are viewing the war like a damned football game meanwhile, civilian casualties mount and our plans for the next phase are very distrusted well, Dickey pointed out that we must study recent history the old Soviet Union broke up, from its imperial form NOW IT STANDS AS 14 NATIONS the old Yugoslavian amalgam of tribes broke up, from its tightly held form, owing only to the popular charismatic and effective leader Tito NOW IT STANDS AS 6 NATIONS Croatia, Bosnia-Herzg, Serbia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Montenegro (list assembled with friend at work with Croatian heritage) so if history is any teacher, Iraq will break into at least 3 nations Kurdistan, Iraq, Basrastan the necessary ingredients are internal hatred, long history of conflict, distrust, religious differences, different choices of undergarments and maxipads we have it in spades the financial markets are not prepared for this the obvious splinter in this equation is Kurdistan central Iraq will not have them Kurds will not have central Iraq as seat of power they prefer Kirkuk, their tribal center toss in the wild card to the Kurdish equation (Turkey), and you get utter mayhem up north Turkey will never allow a free Kurdistan, never a miracle will be required for acceptance of Kurds in a Baghdad-based Parliament another miracle will be required for Basrans to trust anything out of Baghdad in my primitive view, Baghdad is akin to a foreign hostile center to both Kurds and Basrans the financial markets are pricing in peaceful return to normalcy, and eventual upcoming free flow of crude oil WITH CONFLICT IN RE-UNITING THE SPUN OFF PARTS, COMES NO OIL FLOW worse, if oil flows prematurely, then conflict lights up the oil fields we could easily see conflict like in Yugoslavia however, all three regions have one thing in common THEY ALL HATED SADDAM but hatred has never been a solid lasting unifying factor / jim