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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (31260)	4/10/2003 6:36:05 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

D, mainly they aren't convinced that the virus is even isolated yet. Kastel in the Toronto mini hotspot

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (31260)	4/10/2003 7:00:28 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Darfot, <<SARS vaccine will take 5 years to develop?>> Some drug expert said so on TV, because that is the optimistic R&D to market cycle. I think the estimate is unbelievable, because we certainly have not found the vaccine to the ever mutating flu. <<SARS is bad enough to devastate HK for 5 years, it is hard to believe the rest of the world is that far behind>> ... true, nothing a tax cut, further printing of fiat money, lower discount rate and oil price cannot help;0) <<... a virus that takes over the world ... a strange sense of forboding ...>> But, to put matters in perspective, only a few thousand folks got infected so far, and sports a 3-5% fatality rate. What I want to know is of folks can get easily re-infected after recovery. I will leave my low-density residential area for the office in a bit, and will observe. I will be participating in a historic walking tour of the Happy Valley area with 20+ folks tomorrow morning, and will do some surveying. Hopefully I will remember to bring my digital camera along. <<devastate HK for 5 years>> would be unimaginable even for me at this time at 15 miles (+/- 5 miles). At another 5 months, it would be hard to tell HK from Baghdad, except Iraq has oil reserve; we have nothing but minds that know easy money. Chugs, Jay

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (31260)	4/10/2003 9:12:46 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

The SI biotech people are VERY good... take questions to them: Subject 33643 From the little I know [which wouldn't fill a tea cup], this type of vaccine is not just something you whip up. DAK

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (31260)	4/11/2003 12:27:45 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Darfot, Developing vaccines is serious business, not something one can whip up with a Junior Science Kit in the kitchen. Even after identifying the gene sequence of the virus, the researchers must be sure that there is only one virus, not a virus plus another virus, not a mutant of an original virus, not a currently mutating virus, not a symbiotic relationship between say a virus and a bacterium and on and on nearly ad infinitum until the researchers are nearly 100% certain that they have isolated the agent responsible. Sometimes that's relatively easy, such as in the case of bacterium, which are quite large in size compared to other things that can infect us. Unfortunately, most viruses are quite small by comparison. Sometimes we can't even see a virus in an electron microscope because it's too small. We are aware of its presence though, because the human body builds antibodies to the virus, and we can detect the presence of the antibodies. Now, all of what I've just said in a few sentences, is actually months and possibly years of work in a research laboratory outfitted with the best available medical research equipment and staffed by the best researchers in the world. It's not an easy task. Culturing organisms also takes time. The human gestation period is approximately 9 months. To reproduce organisms also takes X amount of time, which we could very loosely call a gestation period. Viruses take anywhere from a day to many days to reproduce themselves. In order to research them, we need them to reproduce in sufficient quantities that they can be effectively studied. In short, more time... Developing a vaccine for a bacterium could, in theory, be relatively quick, largely because bacterium are easier to see and easier to study. Five years might not be an unusual length of time to develop a vaccine. And then add a few more years for testing and more testing before something could be released to the general public. If there were an emergency need for the vaccine (say the entire world was dying from some plague), then of necessity, short cuts in the process would be reluctantly permitted. Developing a vaccine for a virus is quite different. Using the example of the West Nile virus, there is a small company (British, I think) that is trying something entirely new. They have attempted to cut short the research period by identifying the genetic sequence of the West Nile virus, which I believe is now completed or nearly complete. They intend to take the standard yellow fever vaccine, remove the yellow fever virus genetic sequence from the existing vaccine and replace it with the genetic sequence from the West Nile virus. This has never been done before. It is experimental. The hope is to cut short the length of time needed to develop an effective vaccine, from an estimated 10 to 12 years, down to 2 to 5 years. Even after this biotechnology firm succeeds in creating this experimental vaccine, there will still be years of testing on animals and lab subjects before approval for the general population is granted. So, 5 years is not a long time to develop a vaccine. KJC