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Pastimes : A Jackass, his PAL(indrome), and GOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mt_mike who wrote (1151)	4/11/2003 10:09:59 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1210

two prevailing deadly misconceptions linger on Wall Street 1. Fed's job is done since inflation is returning, and pricing power will follow I heard this specifically several times over the last 2-3 days... it is just dead wrong... producer costs are rising, and that is confirmed by extensive evidence... the HOPE is that pricing power returns, which has transformed into a learned expectation... as long as overcapacity remains at absolutely stifling levels that even exceed past recession levels, no pricing power... as long as China imports dominate the entire retail scene, no pricing power... wow, tough rude awakening upcoming 2. with Iraqi war and uncertainty behind us now, CEO's can ramp up capex spending... it is just dead wrong... all executive guidance has been broadly negative and pessimistic, and that is confirmed by extensive news releases and interviews... risky costly capital equipment purchases always lag final demand by 8-10 months (check the history books)... the HOPE is that capex will return, and business spending leads consumer spending... wow, tough rude awakening upcoming the good news -- war going very well the bad news -- now the guerrilla snipers and suicide bombers sprinkle the landscape with their own intestines the good news -- consumers are no longer uncertain about Iraq and MidEast the bad news -- consumers should be very worried about Islamic reprisal in MidEast weak spots, of which there are many the good news -- CEO's are no longer uncertain about the war the bad news -- CEO's see no final demand, and will continue to restrain all capex layouts more fakeouts in the next few weeks the best case scenarior remains... BAD BIGTIME INFLATIONARY RECESSION -- aka STAGFLATION the delusions persist, linger, remain / jim