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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4083)	4/11/2003 6:04:28 PM
From: re3	Respond to of 5423

i'd move -ng- yeah so i'm at the subway yesterday waitin' for the bus and this young clown with his pants half way to his ankles with a head phone set on is imitating some carpy rapper he is obviously listening to...and somehow i start to think about the ol' five factors of production from eco 101...you know, land, labour, capital, technology, entrepreneurship...and i'm thinkin', which one of these categories does this clown who is irritating us all belong to ? f) ? none of the above ? you think clowns like that worry about inflation ?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4083)	4/11/2003 11:01:04 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5423

We'll leave 'em Quebec and New Foundland... unless they discover gold in New Foundland, then we'll take that too. :O) dAK

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4083)	4/14/2003 9:15:58 AM
From: 4figureau	Respond to of 5423

Asia sneezes and the world catches a cold By Stephen Roach Published: April 13 2003 18:45 War, uncertainty and disease are a tough combination for any economy. But for an unbalanced and vulnerable world, this combination of shocks hurts all the more. A global double dip may now be at hand. The big economies of the developed world appear to have contracted in February and March. Not only has industrial sector activity in the US, Europe, and Japan been getting weaker but most important barometers of service sector activity in these countries are also flashing signs of weakness. At the same time, labour markets around the world are softening, higher energy prices are sapping consumer purchasing power and capital spending is being put on hold. Now Asia has been hit hard by the outbreak of a virulent new disease - severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars). Sars has brought tourism, travel, entertainment and other service activities such as retailing to a virtual standstill in this once-resilient region. Tourism alone represents about 3 to 4 per cent of gross domestic product in Asia, and Chinese tourists have accounted for an increasingly larger portion of the activity in recent years. With the Chinese now reluctant to travel - not just overseas but also at home - and with Asian countries restricting the entry of visitors from affected areas, the Sars effect could easily escalate. Morgan Stanley has pared its 2003 estimate of growth in Asia (ex Japan) from 5 per cent to 4.5 per cent. This assumes a 60 per cent fall in tourism over the next three months and then a return to normal. Unfortunately, the Sars effect is concentrated on Asia - the region of the world that we had counted on to keep the global economy afloat. With this source of global resilience now being undermined, the global economy has little left to support it. Had economic growth been more vigorous before the outbreak of Sars, this probably would not have made such a difference. Sadly, that is not the case. There is far more to the story of emerging global weakness than a Sars-related downturn in Asia. War, and the related uncertainties, are equally important factors. But Sars may be the tipping point. An increasingly vulnerable world economy was ripe for a fall. Growth in the industrial world slowed appreciably in the final months of last year - well before war- and Sars-related jitters took hold. Annualised GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2002 was only 1.4 per cent in the US, about 1 per cent in the eurozone and 2 per cent in Japan. The world economy was operating at "stall speed" - growing too slowly to withstand a big external shock. As bad luck would have it, several such shocks have now hit. In the annals of the business cycle, the combination of stall speed and a shock is lethal - it almost always leads to a contraction in economic activity. There is little reason to believe that things will be different this time. Accordingly, Morgan Stanley now forecasts only 2.4 per cent growth in world GDP in 2003 - significantly below the International Monetary Fund's just-released estimate of 3.2 per cent. Anything below 2.5 per cent world GDP growth is usually viewed as a global recession. This suggests that the world has now lapsed back into recession territory for the second time in three years. It is a fractional breach of that threshold, to be sure. But my fear is that there could be more to come on the downside. The good news is that shocks always wear off over time. As day follows night, war is followed by peace. Destruction requires rebuilding; and disease can eventually be controlled, if not cured. This is exactly what happened after the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001: a brief free fall, followed quickly by a recovery. Victory in Iraq could trigger a comparable rebound in confidence and spending. But like the bounce-back after September 11, this rally might also prove short-lived. Not only could it be constrained by the lingering effects of Sars on the Asian economy; it may also be hindered by the mounting imbalances in a post-bubble world economy. America's gaping current account deficit - now likely to be exacerbated by runaway budget deficits - is particularly worrisome. It underscores the growing perils of a world that is far too dependent on the US. All this suggests that the global economy will suffer from a lingering vulnerability. Sars is only the latest blow to hit a bruised and battered world. A global double-dip recession would not be a fluke - merely a reflection of the systemic flaws that have long been ailing the world. news.ft.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4083)	4/14/2003 9:22:26 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5423

China Q1 FDI up 56.7 pct yr/yr -commerce ministry Monday April 14, 3:51 am ET BEIJING, April 14 (Reuters) - Actual foreign direct investment in China hit $13.09 billion in the first quarter of this year, up 56.7 percent from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said on Monday. Contracted foreign investment, an indicator of future trends, rose 59.6 percent year-on-year in January to March to $22.98 billion, the ministry said. China pulled in a record $52.7 billion in FDI last year as its big pool of cheap labour drew more foreign investors eyeing the country as a manufacturing base and a potentially lucrative market. biz.yahoo.com