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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (6653)	4/12/2003 8:30:49 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

How does corporate vision and potential weigh into your analysis I wonder? Heavily. We aren't buying the past, but the future. All stocks. Not just technology Lizzie. But if "potential" and "vision" were the most important thing, then we should all invest in the residents of lunatic asylums! Unfortunately (and particularly bad for technology investors), there's this little matter called "execution" that is also important. And this doesn't mean killing shareholders. It means getting results. It means turning potential into actual, and getting closer to where the visionaries are pointing. And at the anticipated rate. How does this factor into your analysis Lizzie? Do you buy castles in the air and dreams? You might as well go buy clouds then. As far as technology companies are concerned, there are several out there which are worth investing in. Others that aren't. The difference boils down to results. The hard part about technology (versus Tobacco and foods companies, for example) is that technology companies have lives like fruit flies. Very short, very busy. And out of hordes of them the hope is that one survives long enough so that the millions of shares hatch to start the process anew. Track record is very hard to establish, and trajectory is nearly impossible to change. So it is vitally important to watch whatever past they are leaving behind 'cause course correction isn't really an option. Chances are that when they fizzle out it will be on the path they are currently marking. The only consistent track record this company has is of bleeding shareholders for the benefit of insiders. Tom has lots of vision. He also has lots of your money. Might that make one wonder what it is he really has his eyes on? And as far as rear view mirror is concerned, notice that I didn't start the discussion. I was commenting on the myopic focus on a warped rear view mirror that someone else was using. And suggesting that if one is going to look at the past, one might as well avoid doing a botch-job of it. John