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Strategies & Market Trends : The Great Coin Toss Experiment II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (101)	4/15/2003 12:49:37 PM
From: Sojourner Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 188

The following confirms my observations: I believe it is the ticket to having a winning system in any market. Law of Probability - C. J. Casebeer I opened up a can of worms on the fact trends will and do reverse. Stocks and futures at times go to long extremes either up or down. On even money games a run of 8 is reversal time. Frank Barstow in his book "Beat the Casino" observed that it was between 7 & 8. I have noted this fact myself at the crap table. It is only rarely that an extreme goes past 8 runs on the same side. Playing the 6 & 8 (same House PC of 14) either one seldom goes more than 4. Frank Barstow called this phenomenon "the maturity of chances" which is different than the law of probability and you and your daughter are right. The chances of head or tails or 1/1 odds is always 50/50. Since you and many of your readers enjoy Greg Donio and his long articles, I would like to tell you a story about one of my escapades in Reno and playing the dime crap tables back in the late 40's. I had read about the "double-up-add on base bet, also called the "Great or Grand Martingale." You profit one unit for each bet made. It goes like this: 1-3-7-15-31-63-127-255, which gives 8 bets. I decided to start playing on the side that just lost, giving me one more chance to win. Now the side I was playing had to lose 9 bets to beat me. (Note: the table limit was $100). I played this way between 3 different clubs and dime crap tables for weeks with a $100 BR. The pit bosses didn't like it but considered me a skill and I didn't get too much heat, but finally left for home. I was profiting about $5/hour, which was good wages in those days. Today there are no dime crap tables and it's hard to find 25¢ tables, but when you do, the limit is still $100 -- not so good. For years the Nevada Club in Reno had a $1 minimum bet plus $1,000 limit -- a fair chance to make hourly profits with a $1,000 BR. That's $50 per hour! Nowadays it is hard to find a table like that. Forgive me for side tracking from futures trading. Anyway, Dave just thought I'd help straighten out the "Law of Probability" that Rick and I were talking about.